Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.63% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $33.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.18% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 4.8266
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -66.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0151) – 1
= 6.21%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8266 + -0.0030 × 358 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.7804)
= $43.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y246)
= Exp(a + b × X246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8266 + -0.0030 × 358 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.7201)
= $41.27
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8266 + -0.0030 × 427 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.5729)
= $35.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8266 + -0.0030 × 427 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(3.5126)
= $33.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 66.63% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $33.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 5.3721
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0155
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0155) – 1
= 6.41%
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3721 + -0.0043 × 413 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(3.6276)
= $37.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3721 + -0.0043 × 413 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(3.5654)
= $35.35
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3721 + -0.0043 × 427 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(3.5674)
= $35.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3721 + -0.0043 × 427 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(3.5052)
= $33.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.18% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.