Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.35% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $41.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2025
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 4.5125
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0693
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0693) – 1
= 31.95%
July 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y57)
= Exp(a + b × X57 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 84 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5125 + -0.0018 × 84 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.5035)
= $90.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y57)
= Exp(a + b × X57 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 84 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5125 + -0.0018 × 84 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.2263)
= $68.46
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5125 + -0.0018 × 462 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(3.8392)
= $46.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5125 + -0.0018 × 462 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(3.5619)
= $35.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.35% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $41.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 3.8950
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.52%
April 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8950 + -0.0003 × 334 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.8501)
= $47.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8950 + -0.0003 × 334 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.7322)
= $41.77
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8950 + -0.0003 × 462 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.8103)
= $45.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8950 + -0.0003 × 462 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(3.6924)
= $40.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.73% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.