Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 462.68% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $40.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.93% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of November 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.25%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 1.5167
b = 0.0047
s = 0.0170
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0047) – 1
= 462.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0170) – 1
= 7.05%
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5167 + 0.0047 × 424 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(3.5575)
= $35.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5167 + 0.0047 × 424 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(3.4894)
= $32.77
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5167 + 0.0047 × 457 + 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(3.7137)
= $41.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5167 + 0.0047 × 457 – 2 × 0.0170)
= Exp(3.6456)
= $38.31
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 462.68% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $40.49 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 2.3379
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 188.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.65%
October 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3379 + 0.0029 × 437 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(3.6404)
= $38.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3379 + 0.0029 × 437 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(3.5760)
= $35.73
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3379 + 0.0029 × 457 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(3.6985)
= $40.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3379 + 0.0029 × 457 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(3.6341)
= $37.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 188.93% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of November 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.10 (0.25%).