Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.75% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $43.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (6.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.13% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 31, 2025
End date: May 21, 2026
a = 5.1615
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.70%
December 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y167)
= Exp(a + b × X167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1615 + -0.0038 × 243 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.3595)
= $78.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y167)
= Exp(a + b × X167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1615 + -0.0038 × 243 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.1308)
= $62.23
May 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 384 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1615 + -0.0038 × 384 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(3.8278)
= $45.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y264)
= Exp(a + b × X264 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 384 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1615 + -0.0038 × 384 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(3.5990)
= $36.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.75% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $43.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.45 (6.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 3.7126
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0293
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0293) – 1
= 12.42%
April 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7126 + 0.0002 × 334 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.8342)
= $46.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7126 + 0.0002 × 334 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.7171)
= $41.15
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7126 + 0.0002 × 416 + 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.8497)
= $46.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7126 + 0.0002 × 416 – 2 × 0.0293)
= Exp(3.7326)
= $41.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.13% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.