Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.98% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $35.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.34 (8.59%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.76% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2026
End date: August 14, 2026
a = 3.8749
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.57%
April 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8749 + -0.0004 × 240 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.8427)
= $46.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y166)
= Exp(a + b × X166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8749 + -0.0004 × 240 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.7243)
= $41.44
August 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8749 + -0.0004 × 375 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.7913)
= $44.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8749 + -0.0004 × 375 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.6729)
= $39.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.98% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $35.51 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.34 (8.59%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 10, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 4.6788
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0181
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.50%
July 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6788 + -0.0026 × 340 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.8195)
= $45.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6788 + -0.0026 × 340 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.7471)
= $42.40
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6788 + -0.0026 × 410 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.6352)
= $37.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6788 + -0.0026 × 410 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(3.5628)
= $35.26
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.76% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.