Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.60% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 27, 2025 was $301.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.86% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: February 27, 2025
a = 6.6583
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0527
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.45%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6583 + -0.0005 × 1,469 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.9846)
= $397.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6583 + -0.0005 × 1,469 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.7739)
= $321.80
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6583 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.7953)
= $328.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6583 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(5.5846)
= $266.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.60% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 27, 2025 was $301.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2024
End date: February 27, 2025
a = 3.1480
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0185) – 1
= 7.66%
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1480 + 0.0014 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.6437)
= $282.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1480 + 0.0014 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.5699)
= $262.42
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1480 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.7461)
= $312.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1480 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(5.6723)
= $290.71
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 66.86% per annum.
- CI price at the close of February 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.