Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.62% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $346.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.74 (0.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.05% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2023
End date: April 11, 2024
a = 2.1935
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0341
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 110.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.60%
November 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1935 + 0.0020 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.6737)
= $291.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1935 + 0.0020 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.5374)
= $254.02
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1935 + 0.0020 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.9758)
= $393.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1935 + 0.0020 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.8394)
= $343.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.62% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $346.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.74 (0.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 11.7148
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0048
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0048) – 1
= 1.93%
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7148 + -0.0032 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0048)
= Exp(5.9093)
= $368.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7148 + -0.0032 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0048)
= Exp(5.8902)
= $361.46
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7148 + -0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0048)
= Exp(5.8579)
= $349.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7148 + -0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0048)
= Exp(5.8388)
= $343.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 69.05% per annum.
- CI price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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