Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.19% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $627.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: May 1, 2025
a = 9.2977
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1157
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -45.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1157) – 1
= 58.86%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2977 + -0.0016 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(7.0617)
= $1,166.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2977 + -0.0016 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(6.5989)
= $734.28
May 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2977 + -0.0016 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(6.5297)
= $685.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2977 + -0.0016 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1157)
= Exp(6.0669)
= $431.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 45.19% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $627.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: May 5, 2025
a = 7.0229
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0815
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0815) – 1
= 38.54%
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0229 + -0.0004 × 1,650 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.5916)
= $728.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,650 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0229 + -0.0004 × 1,650 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.2656)
= $526.15
May 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0229 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.5285)
= $684.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0229 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0815)
= Exp(6.2026)
= $494.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.32% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.