Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.21% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 18, 2026 was $577.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.06% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of META price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 14, 2026
End date: June 18, 2026
a = 7.2561
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.44%
April 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2561 + -0.0023 × 333 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.5658)
= $710.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2561 + -0.0023 × 333 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.4396)
= $626.17
June 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2561 + -0.0023 × 398 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.4187)
= $613.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2561 + -0.0023 × 398 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(6.2926)
= $540.54
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.21% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 18, 2026 was $577.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2026
End date: June 18, 2026
a = 6.8133
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.06%
April 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8133 + -0.0011 × 349 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(6.4819)
= $653.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8133 + -0.0011 × 349 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(6.3770)
= $588.16
June 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8133 + -0.0011 × 398 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(6.4280)
= $618.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8133 + -0.0011 × 398 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(6.3231)
= $557.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.06% per annum.
- META price at the close of June 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.