Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 429.33% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $147.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,012.12% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 14, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 2.8744
b = 0.0046
s = 0.0123
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0046) – 1
= 429.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0123) – 1
= 5.04%
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8744 + 0.0046 × 427 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.8485)
= $127.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8744 + 0.0046 × 427 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.7993)
= $121.43
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8744 + 0.0046 × 459 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.9946)
= $147.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8744 + 0.0046 × 459 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.9454)
= $140.53
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 429.33% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $147.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 1.9525
b = 0.0066
s = 0.0074
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0066) – 1
= 1,012.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0074) – 1
= 2.99%
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9525 + 0.0066 × 445 + 2 × 0.0074)
= Exp(4.9040)
= $134.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y308)
= Exp(a + b × X308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9525 + 0.0066 × 445 – 2 × 0.0074)
= Exp(4.8745)
= $130.91
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9525 + 0.0066 × 459 + 2 × 0.0074)
= Exp(4.9964)
= $147.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9525 + 0.0066 × 459 – 2 × 0.0074)
= Exp(4.9669)
= $143.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,012.12% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.