# TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE:TJX)

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

### Summary

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.91% per annum.
• TJX price at the close of September 10, 2024 was \$117.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.49% per annum.
• TJX price at the close of September 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: September 10, 2024

a = 3.3450

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0505

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.91%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0505) – 1
= 22.39%

#### March 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3450 + 0.0008 × 905 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(4.1326)
= \$62.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3450 + 0.0008 × 905 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(3.9306)
= \$50.94

#### September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3450 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(4.8314)
= \$125.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3450 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0505)
= Exp(4.6294)
= \$102.45

#### Description

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.91% per annum.
• TJX price at the close of September 10, 2024 was \$117.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: April 4, 2024
End date: September 10, 2024

a = 1.8650

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0275

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.49%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.62%

#### April 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8650 + 0.0016 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.5915)
= \$98.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8650 + 0.0016 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.4815)
= \$88.37

#### September 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8650 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.8463)
= \$127.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8650 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(4.7363)
= \$114.01

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.49% per annum.
• TJX price at the close of September 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
• Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
• Check the power of mathematical statistics.
• Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.

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