Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.84% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $138.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 262.04% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TJX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 5.8549
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0452
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0452) – 1
= 19.82%
June 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8549 + -0.0022 × 325 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.2175)
= $184.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8549 + -0.0022 × 325 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(5.0367)
= $153.96
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8549 + -0.0022 × 448 + 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.9421)
= $140.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8549 + -0.0022 × 448 – 2 × 0.0452)
= Exp(4.7613)
= $116.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.84% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $138.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 3.3324
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0132
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 262.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0132) – 1
= 5.44%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3324 + 0.0035 × 422 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.8464)
= $127.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3324 + 0.0035 × 422 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.7934)
= $120.71
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3324 + 0.0035 × 452 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.9521)
= $141.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3324 + 0.0035 × 452 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.8991)
= $134.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 262.04% per annum.
- TJX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.