Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.80% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $207.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.70% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2026
End date: July 24, 2026
a = 5.9368
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0406
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0406) – 1
= 17.64%
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9368 + -0.0016 × 200 + 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(5.7024)
= $299.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y139)
= Exp(a + b × X139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9368 + -0.0016 × 200 – 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(5.5399)
= $254.66
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9368 + -0.0016 × 396 + 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(5.3930)
= $219.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9368 + -0.0016 × 396 – 2 × 0.0406)
= Exp(5.2305)
= $186.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.80% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of July 24, 2026 was $207.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2026
End date: July 24, 2026
a = 5.5339
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0279
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0279) – 1
= 11.81%
May 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5339 + -0.0005 × 324 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(5.4382)
= $230.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5339 + -0.0005 × 324 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(5.3265)
= $205.72
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5339 + -0.0005 × 396 + 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(5.4045)
= $222.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5339 + -0.0005 × 396 – 2 × 0.0279)
= Exp(5.2928)
= $198.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.70% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of July 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.