Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.19% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $241.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.98 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.42% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of November 26, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 3, 2025
End date: November 24, 2025
a = 9.3131
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -54.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.16%
September 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3131 + -0.0021 × 1,741 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.6377)
= $280.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,741 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3131 + -0.0021 × 1,741 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.5409)
= $254.91
November 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3131 + -0.0021 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.4623)
= $235.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3131 + -0.0021 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.3655)
= $213.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 54.19% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $241.61 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.98 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2025
End date: November 26, 2025
a = 7.1826
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0217
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0217) – 1
= 9.08%
October 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1826 + -0.0010 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.5377)
= $254.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1826 + -0.0010 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.4508)
= $232.94
November 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1826 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.4843)
= $240.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1826 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(5.3973)
= $220.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.42% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of November 26, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (0.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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