Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.27% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 22, 2026 was $204.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.73 (1.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 807.73% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2026
End date: October 15, 2026
a = 5.7414
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0435
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.01%
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y76)
= Exp(a + b × X76 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7414 + -0.0013 × 109 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.6844)
= $294.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y76)
= Exp(a + b × X76 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7414 + -0.0013 × 109 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.5104)
= $247.24
October 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7414 + -0.0013 × 388 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.3157)
= $203.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7414 + -0.0013 × 388 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.1417)
= $171.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.27% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 22, 2026 was $204.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.73 (1.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2026
End date: October 22, 2026
a = 2.9111
b = 0.0060
s = 0.0151
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 807.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0151) – 1
= 6.23%
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9111 + 0.0060 × 375 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.2075)
= $182.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9111 + 0.0060 × 375 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.1471)
= $171.92
October 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9111 + 0.0060 × 395 + 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.3283)
= $206.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y273)
= Exp(a + b × X273 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9111 + 0.0060 × 395 – 2 × 0.0151)
= Exp(5.2679)
= $194.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 807.73% per annum.
- LOW price at the close of October 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.