Stock Analysis on Net

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.14% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $205.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.23 (10.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.75% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMZN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 28, 2022
End date: February 21, 2025

a = 3.4758

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0700

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 52.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0700) – 1
= 32.31%

October 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4758 + 0.0011 × 893 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.6425)
= $103.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4758 + 0.0011 × 893 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(4.3625)
= $78.46

February 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4758 + 0.0011 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(5.6163)
= $274.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4758 + 0.0011 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0700)
= Exp(5.3364)
= $207.75

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.14% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of May 16, 2025 was $205.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.23 (10.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: May 16, 2025

a = 4.6210

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0772

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.19%

February 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6210 + 0.0004 × 1,355 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.3184)
= $204.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6210 + 0.0004 × 1,355 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.0095)
= $149.83

May 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6210 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.5063)
= $246.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6210 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(5.1974)
= $180.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.75% per annum.
  • AMZN price at the close of May 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Stock Price Trends
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