Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 72.83% per annum.
- HD price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $290.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.23 (2.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.04% per annum.
- HD price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 7.1722
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0120
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0120) – 1
= 4.92%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1722 + -0.0036 × 365 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.8932)
= $362.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1722 + -0.0036 × 365 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.8451)
= $345.55
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1722 + -0.0036 × 429 + 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.6647)
= $288.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y296)
= Exp(a + b × X296 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1722 + -0.0036 × 429 – 2 × 0.0120)
= Exp(5.6166)
= $274.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 72.83% per annum.
- HD price at the close of October 12, 2026 was $290.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.23 (2.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2026
End date: October 12, 2026
a = 5.0889
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0145
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0145) – 1
= 5.98%
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0889 + 0.0013 × 420 + 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(5.6804)
= $293.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0889 + 0.0013 × 420 – 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(5.6223)
= $276.53
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0889 + 0.0013 × 434 + 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(5.6991)
= $298.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0889 + 0.0013 × 434 – 2 × 0.0145)
= Exp(5.6411)
= $281.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.04% per annum.
- HD price at the close of October 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.