Stock Analysis on Net

Kellanova (NYSE:K)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since August 1, 2024.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Kellanova, economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The financial data reveals several important trends over the given five-year period. Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) exhibits an overall increase from 2019 to 2021, rising from 1016 million US dollars to a peak of 1799 million US dollars. However, this upward trajectory reverses significantly in 2022 and 2023, with values falling to 1089 million and 1013 million US dollars respectively, closely approaching the 2019 level by 2023.

The cost of capital shows moderate fluctuations throughout the period. It begins at 7.1% in 2019, slightly decreases to 6.96% in 2020, then climbs to 7.16% in 2021. The upward movement continues more markedly in 2022 to 7.5%, before easing somewhat to 7.33% in 2023. Overall, the cost of capital remains within a relatively narrow range, with a minor upward trend toward the later years.

Invested capital remains fairly stable across the first four years, starting at 13,101 million US dollars in 2019 and reaching a slight peak of 13,587 million US dollars in 2021, followed by a marginal reduction to 13,188 million in 2022. In 2023, there is a more substantial decrease to 11,675 million US dollars, indicating a possible divestment or asset reduction strategy during the final reported year.

The economic profit, which reflects the value created over and above the cost of capital, aligns with the trend in NOPAT but shows even greater volatility. It starts relatively low at 86 million in 2019, then increases sharply to 648 million in 2020 and further to 826 million in 2021. However, it declines significantly to 100 million in 2022 before a modest recovery to 158 million in 2023. This pattern indicates a strong performance peak in 2021 with a notable contraction in profitability relative to the capital cost in the subsequent years.

In summary, the company experienced strong profit growth and economic value creation up to 2021, followed by a notable decline in operating profit and economic profit in the last two years, alongside a reduction in invested capital in 2023. The cost of capital has gradually increased since 2020, potentially putting additional pressure on economic profit margins.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
Increased significantly by 2021, then declined to near 2019 levels by 2023.
Cost of Capital
Maintained within a tight range with a slight upward trajectory peaking in 2022.
Invested Capital
Relatively stable until 2022, followed by a sharp decrease in 2023.
Economic Profit
Peaked in 2021, declined sharply thereafter, indicating reduced value creation beyond the cost of capital.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Kellanova, NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Net income attributable to Kellanova
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for expected credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in exit cost reserves3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense6
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes7
(Gain) loss on marketable securities
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income8
Investment income, after taxes9
(Income) loss from discontinued operations, net of tax10
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for expected credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in exit cost reserves.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income attributable to Kellanova.

5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income attributable to Kellanova.

8 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.

10 Elimination of discontinued operations.


The financial data reveals that net income attributable to the company exhibited notable fluctuations over the five-year period. Starting at 960 million US dollars in 2019, net income increased substantially to 1,251 million in 2020 and further to a peak of 1,488 million in 2021. However, this upward trend reversed in the subsequent years, with net income declining sharply to 960 million in 2022 and slightly decreasing again to 951 million in 2023, essentially returning to near the initial 2019 level by the end of the period.

Similarly, net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) showed strong growth in the first three years, rising from 1,016 million US dollars in 2019 to a high of 1,799 million in 2021. This represents a compound growth phase with substantial improvement in operational profitability. Following this peak, NOPAT saw a marked decline in 2022 to 1,089 million and continued to decrease moderately to 1,013 million in 2023, reaching a figure close to the starting point of 2019.

Net Income Trends
Initial growth through 2021 followed by a reversion to earlier levels by 2023.
NOPAT Trends
Strong operational profit growth until 2021, then a significant decline over the last two years.
Overall Pattern
Both net income and NOPAT peaked in 2021 and subsequently declined, erasing much of the gains made during the growth phase. This suggests challenges in sustaining profitability post-2021.

Cash Operating Taxes

Kellanova, cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).


The analysis of the annual financial data over the period from the end of 2019 through the end of 2023 reveals certain fluctuations in tax-related cash outflows.

Income Taxes
The amount of income taxes paid has exhibited variability throughout the periods. Starting at 321 million USD at the end of 2019, amounts remained relatively stable in 2020 with 323 million USD. However, there was a significant increase in 2021 to 474 million USD. Subsequently, income taxes declined sharply in 2022 to 244 million USD, followed by a slight increase to 258 million USD in 2023. This pattern suggests a peak in income tax obligations in 2021, with a marked reduction in the following years.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes experienced a notable decline from 536 million USD in 2019 to 317 million USD at the end of 2020. Following this dip, there was a gradual increase over the next three years, rising to 399 million USD in 2021, 340 million USD in 2022, and finally 365 million USD in 2023. Despite the upward trajectory from 2020 onwards, the cash operating taxes in 2023 remained below the 2019 level.

Overall, the data indicates a divergent trend between income taxes and cash operating taxes. Income taxes peaked in 2021 but decreased significantly afterwards, whereas cash operating taxes dropped sharply in 2020 but then experienced gradual recovery. This could reflect changes in taxable income, operational performance, or tax policies affecting the timing and amount of tax payments across the years.


Invested Capital

Kellanova, invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Current maturities of long-term debt
Notes payable
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Kellanova equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for expected credit losses3
Exit cost reserves4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Kellanova equity
Construction in progress7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of exit cost reserves.

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Kellanova equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Debt and Leases
There is a clear downward trend in the total reported debt and leases over the analyzed periods. From approximately 8.47 billion USD at the end of 2019, the debt load steadily decreased each year, reaching about 6.53 billion USD by the end of 2023. This suggests a consistent effort toward deleveraging or reducing liabilities during this timeframe.
Equity
Total equity exhibited growth from 2019 to 2022, increasing from roughly 2.75 billion USD to around 3.94 billion USD. However, in the final period ending 2023, there is a noticeable decline to approximately 3.18 billion USD. This drop could indicate either a return of capital to shareholders, losses, or other equity-reducing events experienced in that year.
Invested Capital
The invested capital values show relative stability but with a downward move in the most recent period. From about 13.1 billion USD in 2019, invested capital slightly increased to a peak near 13.59 billion USD by the end of 2021, before modestly declining to roughly 11.68 billion USD by the end of 2023. This decline may reflect asset sales, reduced capital expenditure, or other adjustments in company investments or assets employed.
Overall Insights
The company appears to have focused on reducing its financial leverage throughout the examined years, improving its debt profile. Despite an increase in equity until 2022, the sharp reduction in 2023 warrants attention as it contrasts with prior growth trends. The decline in invested capital in 2023 aligns with lower equity, suggesting a contraction in the company's operational or investment base. These patterns indicate strategic financial restructuring or responses to external market conditions that have impacted the company's capital structure and asset base in recent years.

Cost of Capital

Kellanova, cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Notes payable and long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Notes payable and long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Notes payable and long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Notes payable and long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Notes payable and long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Notes payable and long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Notes payable and long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Notes payable and long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Notes payable and long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Notes payable and long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Kellanova, economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Coca-Cola Co.
Mondelēz International Inc.
PepsiCo Inc.
Philip Morris International Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The financial data reveals several notable trends in the company's economic performance over the five-year period from the end of 2019 through the end of 2023.

Economic Profit
The economic profit fluctuated significantly during the period. It started at 86 million US dollars in 2019 and increased substantially to 648 million in 2020, followed by a further rise to 826 million in 2021. After this peak, economic profit declined sharply to 100 million in 2022 but rebounded to 158 million in 2023. This pattern indicates volatility, with a peak in 2021 and a noteworthy decline thereafter, although recovery efforts appear evident by 2023.
Invested Capital
The invested capital showed relatively stable levels between 2019 and 2022, ranging from approximately 13.1 billion to 13.6 billion US dollars. However, there was a significant reduction in 2023, dropping to approximately 11.7 billion US dollars. This decline suggests either a liquidation of assets, divestment, or an optimization strategy to reduce capital employed in business operations.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio displayed considerable variation during these years. In 2019, the ratio was low at 0.65%, followed by a substantial increase in 2020 and 2021 to 4.91% and 6.08%, respectively. This peak suggests improved returns relative to capital costs during these years. However, the ratio dropped sharply to 0.76% in 2022 and slightly recovered to 1.35% in 2023. These fluctuations point to challenges in maintaining efficient capital utilization and consistent profitability in recent years.

Overall, the company's economic profit and return metrics experienced strong growth until 2021, followed by a decline amid an evident reduction in invested capital by the end of 2023. This mixed performance suggests recent operational or market challenges affecting profitability and capital efficiency, although early signs of recovery can be observed in the latest period.


Economic Profit Margin

Kellanova, economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 30, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 28, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Net sales
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Coca-Cola Co.
Mondelēz International Inc.
PepsiCo Inc.
Philip Morris International Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-28).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Net sales
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrated significant growth from 2019 to 2021, increasing from 86 million US dollars to 826 million US dollars. This upward trend was followed by a substantial decrease in 2022 to 100 million US dollars, before recovering to 158 million US dollars in 2023. Overall, the data exhibit volatility with a peak in 2021 and a notable decline thereafter, though still maintaining levels above those observed in 2019.
Net Sales
Net sales showed modest growth from 2019 to 2022, rising gradually from 13,578 million US dollars in 2019 to 15,315 million US dollars in 2022. However, there was a decrease in net sales in 2023, dropping to 13,122 million US dollars. This pattern suggests initial steady growth followed by a contraction in the last reported period.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin increased significantly from 0.63% in 2019 to a peak of 5.83% in 2021. This margin then sharply declined to 0.65% in 2022, with a slight improvement to 1.2% in 2023. The margin trend aligns closely with the pattern observed in economic profit, indicating fluctuations in profitability efficiency relative to net sales.
Summary of Trends
The financial data reveal a period of strong profitability growth up to 2021, followed by a marked reduction in 2022 with partial recovery in 2023. While net sales increased steadily until 2022, the subsequent decline in 2023 may have contributed to the observed decrease in economic profit and profit margin. The volatility in economic profit and margin highlights potential challenges in maintaining profitability despite generally stable sales figures over the years.