Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.62% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of May 2, 2025 was $106.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of May 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2022
End date: May 2, 2025
a = 4.4602
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0529
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0529) – 1
= 23.58%
October 6, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4602 + 0.0001 × 885 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(4.6986)
= $109.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y612)
= Exp(a + b × X612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4602 + 0.0001 × 885 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(4.4869)
= $88.85
May 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4602 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(4.8393)
= $126.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4602 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0529)
= Exp(4.6275)
= $102.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.62% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of May 2, 2025 was $106.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 28, 2024
End date: May 2, 2025
a = 4.9261
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0374
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0374) – 1
= 16.15%
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9261 + -0.0001 × 1,424 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.8218)
= $124.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9261 + -0.0001 × 1,424 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.6721)
= $106.92
May 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9261 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.7715)
= $118.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9261 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0374)
= Exp(4.6217)
= $101.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of May 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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