Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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 - Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
 - The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.30% per annum.
 - EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was $39.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
 - The secondary trend is increasing.
 - The growth rate of the secondary trend is 148.46% per annum.
 - EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
 
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
                Yi - natural logarithm of EQT price
                Xi - time index, 1 day interval
                σ - standard deviation of εi
                a - estimator of α
                b - estimator of β
                s - estimator of σ
                Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: 
                End date: 
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
                = Exp(365 × ) – 1
                = 
            
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
                = Exp(4 × ) – 1
                = 
            
October 1, 2019 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  + 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  + 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  – 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  – 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  + 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  + 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  – 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  – 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
 - The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.30% per annum.
 - EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was $39.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
 
Secondary Trend
Start date: 
                End date: 
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
                = Exp(365 × ) – 1
                = 
            
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
                = Exp(4 × ) – 1
                = 
            
July 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  + 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  + 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  – 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  – 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  + 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  + 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
                = Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
                = Exp(a + b ×  – 2 × s)
                = Exp( +  ×  – 2 × )
                = Exp()
                = $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
 - The growth rate of the secondary trend is 148.46% per annum.
 - EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
 
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