Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.30% per annum.
- EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was $39.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 148.46% per annum.
- EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EQT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2019
End date: October 27, 2022
a = 1.0042
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1973
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1973) – 1
= 120.19%
October 1, 2019 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0042 + 0.0015 × 701 + 2 × 0.1973)
= Exp(2.4549)
= $11.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y482)
= Exp(a + b × X482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0042 + 0.0015 × 701 – 2 × 0.1973)
= Exp(1.6656)
= $5.29
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0042 + 0.0015 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1973)
= Exp(4.1452)
= $63.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0042 + 0.0015 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1973)
= Exp(3.3559)
= $28.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.30% per annum.
- EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was $39.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2021
End date: October 27, 2022
a = -0.6066
b = 0.0025
s = 0.1437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 148.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1437) – 1
= 77.66%
July 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6066 + 0.0025 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.1437)
= Exp(3.0943)
= $22.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6066 + 0.0025 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.1437)
= Exp(2.5196)
= $12.42
October 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6066 + 0.0025 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1437)
= Exp(4.2263)
= $68.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6066 + 0.0025 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1437)
= Exp(3.6516)
= $38.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 148.46% per annum.
- EQT price at the close of October 27, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
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