Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.31% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of January 5, 2023 was $208.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $196.86 (48.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.37% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of January 5, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $14.30 (6.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2020
End date: June 16, 2021
a = 4.1684
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0658
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.12%
February 27, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y537)
= Exp(a + b × X537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1684 + 0.0011 × 780 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(5.1423)
= $171.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y537)
= Exp(a + b × X537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 780 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1684 + 0.0011 × 780 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.8790)
= $131.50
June 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1684 + 0.0011 × 1,255 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(5.6552)
= $285.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1684 + 0.0011 × 1,255 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(5.3919)
= $219.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.31% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of January 5, 2023 was $208.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $196.86 (48.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 16, 2020
End date: January 4, 2023
a = 5.2381
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.26%
November 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2381 + 0.0001 × 1,043 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.4798)
= $239.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2381 + 0.0001 × 1,043 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.2953)
= $199.40
January 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2381 + 0.0001 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.5914)
= $268.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2381 + 0.0001 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.4070)
= $222.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.37% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of January 5, 2023 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $14.30 (6.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current STZ price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website