Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.48% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 24, 2024 was $15.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.99% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 0.8554
b = 0.0011
s = 0.1631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1631) – 1
= 92.03%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8554 + 0.0011 × 1,145 + 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(2.4428)
= $11.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y790)
= Exp(a + b × X790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,145 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8554 + 0.0011 × 1,145 – 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(1.7903)
= $5.99
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8554 + 0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(3.1929)
= $24.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8554 + 0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1631)
= Exp(2.5404)
= $12.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.48% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 24, 2024 was $15.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 24, 2024
a = 5.4135
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0491
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0491) – 1
= 21.69%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4135 + -0.0015 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.9963)
= $20.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4135 + -0.0015 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.7999)
= $16.44
April 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4135 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.7874)
= $16.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4135 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0491)
= Exp(2.5911)
= $13.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.99% per annum.
- CCL price at the close of April 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out CCL and 1,499 other stocks on our new website