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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc


Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Difficulty: Intermediate


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Allergan PLC, free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

USD $ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden%
01 FCFF0 hidden
1 FCFF1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
2 FCFF2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
3 FCFF3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
4 FCFF4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
5 FCFF5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden%) ÷ (hidden% – hidden%) hidden
Intrinsic value of Allergan's capital hidden
Less: Preferred shares, $0.0001 par value per share (book value) hidden
Less: Long-term debt and capital leases, including current portion (fair value) hidden
Intrinsic value of Allergan's common stock hidden
Intrinsic value of Allergan's common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Allergan PLC, cost of capital

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) hidden hidden hidden%
Preferred shares, $0.0001 par value per share (book value) hidden hidden hidden%
Long-term debt and capital leases, including current portion (fair value) hidden hidden hidden% = hidden% × (1 – hidden%)

1 USD $ in thousands

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= hidden × $hidden = $hidden

   Long-term debt and capital leases, including current portion (fair value). See Details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See Details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See Details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (hidden% + hidden% + hidden% + hidden% + hidden%) ÷ 5 = hidden%

WACC = hidden%


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Allergan PLC, PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in thousands)
Interest expense hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net income (loss) attributable to shareholders hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden%
Interest expense, after tax2 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Add: Dividends declared hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Long-term debt and capital leases, excluding current portion hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Shareholders' equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total capital hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden% hidden%
Averages
RR hidden
ROIC hidden%
Growth rate of FCFF (g)6 hidden%

2017 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= hidden × (1 – hidden%) = hidden

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income (loss) attributable to shareholders – Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of tax + Interest expense, after tax
= hiddenhidden + hidden = hidden

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [hiddenhidden] ÷ hidden = hidden

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= hidden × hidden% = hidden%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (hidden × hidden% – hidden) ÷ (hidden + hidden) = hidden%

where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Allergan's debt and equity (USD $ in thousands)
FCFF0 = last year Allergan's free cash flow to the firm (USD $ in thousands)
WACC = weighted average cost of Allergan's capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Allergan PLC, H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden%
2 g2 hidden%
3 g3 hidden%
4 g4 hidden%
5 and thereafter g5 hidden%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden% + (hidden% – hidden%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden%