Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net
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Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company’s asset base.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Facebook Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 12.49%
01 FCFE0 20,660 
1 FCFE1 24,374  = 20,660 × (1 + 17.98%) 21,667 
2 FCFE2 28,222  = 24,374 × (1 + 15.79%) 22,301 
3 FCFE3 32,058  = 28,222 × (1 + 13.59%) 22,519 
4 FCFE4 35,712  = 32,058 × (1 + 11.40%) 22,300 
5 FCFE5 39,000  = 35,712 × (1 + 9.21%) 21,648 
5 Terminal value (TV5) 1,295,406  = 39,000 × (1 + 9.21%) ÷ (12.49%9.21%) 719,052 
Intrinsic value of Facebook Inc.’s common stock 829,487 
 
Intrinsic value of Facebook Inc.’s common stock (per share) $291.14
Current share price $240.86

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-01-30).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.21%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.93%
Systematic risk of Facebook Inc.’s common stock βFB 1.05
 
Required rate of return on Facebook Inc.’s common stock3 rFB 12.49%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rFB = RF + βFB [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.21% + 1.05 [11.93%1.21%]
= 12.49%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Facebook Inc., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Net income 18,485  22,112  15,934  10,217  3,688 
Revenue 70,697  55,838  40,653  27,638  17,928 
Total assets 133,376  97,334  84,524  64,961  49,407 
Stockholders’ equity 101,054  84,127  74,347  59,194  44,218 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 26.15% 39.60% 39.20% 36.97% 20.57%
Asset turnover3 0.53 0.57 0.48 0.43 0.36
Financial leverage4 1.32 1.16 1.14 1.10 1.12
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 32.50%
Asset turnover 0.47
Financial leverage 1.17
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 17.98%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-01-30), 10-K (filing date: 2019-01-31), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-01), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-03), 10-K (filing date: 2016-01-28).

2019 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 18,485 ÷ 70,697 = 26.15%

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 70,697 ÷ 133,376 = 0.53

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Stockholders’ equity
= 133,376 ÷ 101,054 = 1.32

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 32.50% × 0.47 × 1.17 = 17.98%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (686,235 × 12.49%20,660) ÷ (686,235 + 20,660) = 9.21%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Facebook Inc.’s common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Facebook Inc.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Facebook Inc.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Facebook Inc., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 17.98%
2 g2 15.79%
3 g3 13.59%
4 g4 11.40%
5 and thereafter g5 9.21%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 17.98% + (9.21%17.98%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 15.79%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 17.98% + (9.21%17.98%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 13.59%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 17.98% + (9.21%17.98%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 11.40%