Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.04% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $98.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.43 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: March 6, 2025
a = 2.0612
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0442
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 69.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.34%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0612 + 0.0014 × 1,245 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.9403)
= $51.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0612 + 0.0014 × 1,245 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.7635)
= $43.10
March 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0612 + 0.0014 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.6853)
= $108.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0612 + 0.0014 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(4.5085)
= $90.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 69.04% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of May 7, 2025 was $98.83 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.43 (0.43%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.9142
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0536
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0536) – 1
= 23.93%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.6551)
= $105.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.4406)
= $84.82
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.6202)
= $101.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9142 + -0.0002 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.4057)
= $81.91
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.74% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of May 7, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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