Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.08% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $158.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.29% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2025
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 4.2813
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0420
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.29%
September 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y48)
= Exp(a + b × X48 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 67 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2813 + 0.0018 × 67 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.4880)
= $88.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y48)
= Exp(a + b × X48 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 67 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2813 + 0.0018 × 67 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.3200)
= $75.19
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2813 + 0.0018 × 431 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.1544)
= $173.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2813 + 0.0018 × 431 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.9865)
= $146.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 95.08% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $158.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 6.1112
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0153
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.31%
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1112 + -0.0025 × 403 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(5.1496)
= $172.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1112 + -0.0025 × 403 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(5.0884)
= $162.13
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1112 + -0.0025 × 431 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(5.0806)
= $160.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1112 + -0.0025 × 431 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(5.0195)
= $151.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.29% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.