Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.52% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $163.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.98 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.19 (2.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 5.5649
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 6.99%
August 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5649 + -0.0012 × 401 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.1335)
= $169.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5649 + -0.0012 × 401 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.0659)
= $158.52
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5649 + -0.0012 × 473 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(5.0500)
= $156.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5649 + -0.0012 × 473 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(4.9824)
= $145.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.52% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $163.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.98 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 5.2575
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0186
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0186) – 1
= 7.73%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2575 + -0.0005 × 422 + 2 × 0.0186)
= Exp(5.0949)
= $163.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2575 + -0.0005 × 422 – 2 × 0.0186)
= Exp(5.0204)
= $151.47
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2575 + -0.0005 × 478 + 2 × 0.0186)
= Exp(5.0684)
= $158.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y331)
= Exp(a + b × X331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2575 + -0.0005 × 478 – 2 × 0.0186)
= Exp(4.9939)
= $147.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of November 4, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.19 (2.63%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.