Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.66% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $147.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.56% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.1522
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0399
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0399) – 1
= 17.30%
September 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y105)
= Exp(a + b × X105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1522 + 0.0017 × 154 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(4.4976)
= $89.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y105)
= Exp(a + b × X105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1522 + 0.0017 × 154 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(4.3380)
= $76.56
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1522 + 0.0017 × 479 + 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(5.0581)
= $157.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1522 + 0.0017 × 479 – 2 × 0.0399)
= Exp(4.8985)
= $134.09
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.66% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $147.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.3262
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0303
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0303) – 1
= 12.91%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3262 + 0.0013 × 295 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.7696)
= $117.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3262 + 0.0013 × 295 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.6482)
= $104.39
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3262 + 0.0013 × 479 + 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(5.0083)
= $149.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3262 + 0.0013 × 479 – 2 × 0.0303)
= Exp(4.8869)
= $132.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.56% per annum.
- TGT price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.