Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT)

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Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company’s asset base.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Target Corp., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFE0
1 FCFE1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFE2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFE3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFE4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFE5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ()
Intrinsic value of Target Corp.’s common stock
 
Intrinsic value of Target Corp.’s common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-03-11).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM)
Systematic risk of Target Corp.’s common stock βTGT
 
Required rate of return on Target Corp.’s common stock3 rTGT

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rTGT = RF + βTGT [E(RM) – RF]
= + []
=


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Target Corp., PRAT model

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Average Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017 Jan 30, 2016 Jan 31, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Dividends declared
Net earnings (loss)
Sales
Total assets
Shareholders’ investment
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1
Profit margin2
Asset turnover3
Financial leverage4
Averages
Retention rate
Profit margin
Asset turnover
Financial leverage
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-03-11), 10-K (filing date: 2019-03-13), 10-K (filing date: 2018-03-14), 10-K (filing date: 2017-03-08), 10-K (filing date: 2016-03-11), 10-K (filing date: 2015-03-13).

2020 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net earnings (loss) – Dividends declared) ÷ Net earnings (loss)
= () ÷ =

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings (loss) ÷ Sales
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Asset turnover = Sales ÷ Total assets
= ÷ =

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ investment
= ÷ =

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × × =


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × ( × ) ÷ ( + ) =

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Target Corp.’s common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Target Corp.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Target Corp.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Target Corp., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =