Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of June 4, 2026 was $117.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.33% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of June 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.62 (4.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2026
End date: March 31, 2026
a = 5.1440
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0185
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0185) – 1
= 7.68%
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1440 + -0.0010 × 299 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(4.8936)
= $133.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1440 + -0.0010 × 299 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(4.8196)
= $123.91
March 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1440 + -0.0010 × 356 + 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(4.8388)
= $126.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1440 + -0.0010 × 356 – 2 × 0.0185)
= Exp(4.7648)
= $117.31
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of June 4, 2026 was $117.74 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2026
End date: May 20, 2026
a = 4.7212
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.62%
February 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7212 + 0.0003 × 299 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.8742)
= $130.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y204)
= Exp(a + b × X204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7212 + 0.0003 × 299 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.7733)
= $118.30
May 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7212 + 0.0003 × 406 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.9109)
= $135.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7212 + 0.0003 × 406 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.8100)
= $122.73
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.33% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of June 4, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.62 (4.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.