Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.21% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $110.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.59% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 5.5555
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0289
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0289) – 1
= 12.26%
April 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5555 + -0.0018 × 373 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.9408)
= $139.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y256)
= Exp(a + b × X256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5555 + -0.0018 × 373 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.8252)
= $124.61
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5555 + -0.0018 × 481 + 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.7461)
= $115.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5555 + -0.0018 × 481 – 2 × 0.0289)
= Exp(4.6305)
= $102.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.21% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 3, 2026 was $110.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 21, 2026
End date: August 3, 2026
a = 5.2634
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0211
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0211) – 1
= 8.83%
May 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2634 + -0.0012 × 407 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.8323)
= $125.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2634 + -0.0012 × 407 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.7477)
= $115.32
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2634 + -0.0012 × 481 + 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.7462)
= $115.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2634 + -0.0012 × 481 – 2 × 0.0211)
= Exp(4.6616)
= $105.81
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.59% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of August 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.