Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $104.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.34% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 5.0508
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0508 + -0.0009 × 196 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.9519)
= $141.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0508 + -0.0009 × 196 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.8044)
= $122.05
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0508 + -0.0009 × 437 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.7396)
= $114.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0508 + -0.0009 × 437 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(4.5921)
= $98.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.49% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $104.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 5.2160
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0323
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.79%
April 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2160 + -0.0013 × 269 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.9243)
= $137.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2160 + -0.0013 × 269 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.7951)
= $120.92
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2160 + -0.0013 × 437 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.7018)
= $110.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2160 + -0.0013 × 437 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(4.5726)
= $96.79
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 38.34% per annum.
- WMT price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.