Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.81% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $198.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.75% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2020
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.0115
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1162
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1162) – 1
= 59.15%
March 25, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0115 + 0.0012 × 331 + 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(3.6576)
= $38.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0115 + 0.0012 × 331 – 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(3.1929)
= $24.36
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0115 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(5.5236)
= $250.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0115 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1162)
= Exp(5.0589)
= $157.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.81% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $198.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 0.1745
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.49%
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1745 + 0.0028 × 1,682 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(5.0242)
= $152.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,161)
= Exp(a + b × X1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1745 + 0.0028 × 1,682 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.8716)
= $130.53
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1745 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(5.4272)
= $227.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1745 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(5.2746)
= $195.30
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.75% per annum.
- MPC price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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