Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) indicates what should be the expected or required rate of return on risky assets like Marathon Petroleum Corp. common stock.
Rates of Return
Marathon Petroleum Corp., monthly rates of return
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PriceMPC,t1 | DividendMPC,t1 | RMPC,t2 | PriceS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| Jan 31, 2019 | $66.26 | 2,704.10 | ||||
| 1. | Feb 28, 2019 | $62.01 | $0.53 | -5.61% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% |
| 2. | Mar 31, 2019 | $59.85 | -3.48% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% | |
| 3. | Apr 30, 2019 | $60.87 | 1.70% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 58. | Nov 30, 2023 | $149.19 | $0.825 | -0.82% | 4,567.80 | 8.92% |
| 59. | Dec 31, 2023 | $148.36 | -0.56% | 4,769.83 | 4.42% | |
| Average (R): | 2.70% | 1.11% | ||||
| Standard deviation: | 13.63% | 5.31% | ||||
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PriceMPC,t1 | DividendMPC,t1 | RMPC,t2 | PriceS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| Jan 31, 2019 | $66.26 | 2,704.10 | ||||
| 1. | Feb 28, 2019 | $62.01 | $0.53 | -5.61% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% |
| 2. | Mar 31, 2019 | $59.85 | -3.48% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% | |
| 3. | Apr 30, 2019 | $60.87 | 1.70% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% | |
| 4. | May 31, 2019 | $45.99 | $0.53 | -23.57% | 2,752.06 | -6.58% |
| 5. | Jun 30, 2019 | $55.88 | 21.50% | 2,941.76 | 6.89% | |
| 6. | Jul 31, 2019 | $56.39 | 0.91% | 2,980.38 | 1.31% | |
| 7. | Aug 31, 2019 | $49.21 | $0.53 | -11.79% | 2,926.46 | -1.81% |
| 8. | Sep 30, 2019 | $60.75 | 23.45% | 2,976.74 | 1.72% | |
| 9. | Oct 31, 2019 | $63.95 | 5.27% | 3,037.56 | 2.04% | |
| 10. | Nov 30, 2019 | $60.64 | $0.53 | -4.35% | 3,140.98 | 3.40% |
| 11. | Dec 31, 2019 | $60.25 | -0.64% | 3,230.78 | 2.86% | |
| 12. | Jan 31, 2020 | $54.50 | -9.54% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 13. | Feb 29, 2020 | $47.42 | $0.58 | -11.93% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% |
| 14. | Mar 31, 2020 | $23.62 | -50.19% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| 15. | Apr 30, 2020 | $32.08 | 35.82% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% | |
| 16. | May 31, 2020 | $35.14 | $0.58 | 11.35% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% |
| 17. | Jun 30, 2020 | $37.38 | 6.37% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% | |
| 18. | Jul 31, 2020 | $38.20 | 2.19% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% | |
| 19. | Aug 31, 2020 | $35.46 | $0.58 | -5.65% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% |
| 20. | Sep 30, 2020 | $29.34 | -17.26% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% | |
| 21. | Oct 31, 2020 | $29.50 | 0.55% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% | |
| 22. | Nov 30, 2020 | $38.88 | $0.58 | 33.76% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% |
| 23. | Dec 31, 2020 | $41.36 | 6.38% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% | |
| 24. | Jan 31, 2021 | $43.16 | 4.35% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% | |
| 25. | Feb 28, 2021 | $54.62 | $0.58 | 27.90% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% |
| 26. | Mar 31, 2021 | $53.49 | -2.07% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% | |
| 27. | Apr 30, 2021 | $55.65 | 4.04% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% | |
| 28. | May 31, 2021 | $61.80 | $0.58 | 12.09% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% |
| 29. | Jun 30, 2021 | $60.42 | -2.23% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% | |
| 30. | Jul 31, 2021 | $55.22 | -8.61% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% | |
| 31. | Aug 31, 2021 | $59.27 | $0.58 | 8.38% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% |
| 32. | Sep 30, 2021 | $61.81 | 4.29% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% | |
| 33. | Oct 31, 2021 | $65.93 | 6.67% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% | |
| 34. | Nov 30, 2021 | $60.85 | $0.58 | -6.83% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% |
| 35. | Dec 31, 2021 | $63.99 | 5.16% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% | |
| 36. | Jan 31, 2022 | $71.75 | 12.13% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% | |
| 37. | Feb 28, 2022 | $77.87 | $0.58 | 9.34% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% |
| 38. | Mar 31, 2022 | $85.50 | 9.80% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% | |
| 39. | Apr 30, 2022 | $87.26 | 2.06% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% | |
| 40. | May 31, 2022 | $101.79 | $0.58 | 17.32% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% |
| 41. | Jun 30, 2022 | $82.21 | -19.24% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% | |
| 42. | Jul 31, 2022 | $91.66 | 11.49% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% | |
| 43. | Aug 31, 2022 | $100.75 | $0.58 | 10.55% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% |
| 44. | Sep 30, 2022 | $99.33 | -1.41% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% | |
| 45. | Oct 31, 2022 | $113.62 | 14.39% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 46. | Nov 30, 2022 | $121.81 | $0.75 | 7.87% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% |
| 47. | Dec 31, 2022 | $116.39 | -4.45% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% | |
| 48. | Jan 31, 2023 | $128.52 | 10.42% | 4,076.60 | 6.18% | |
| 49. | Feb 28, 2023 | $123.60 | $0.75 | -3.24% | 3,970.15 | -2.61% |
| 50. | Mar 31, 2023 | $134.83 | 9.09% | 4,109.31 | 3.51% | |
| 51. | Apr 30, 2023 | $122.00 | -9.52% | 4,169.48 | 1.46% | |
| 52. | May 31, 2023 | $104.91 | $0.75 | -13.39% | 4,179.83 | 0.25% |
| 53. | Jun 30, 2023 | $116.60 | 11.14% | 4,376.86 | 4.71% | |
| 54. | Jul 31, 2023 | $133.02 | 14.08% | 4,588.96 | 4.85% | |
| 55. | Aug 31, 2023 | $142.77 | $0.75 | 7.89% | 4,507.66 | -1.77% |
| 56. | Sep 30, 2023 | $151.34 | 6.00% | 4,288.05 | -4.87% | |
| 57. | Oct 31, 2023 | $151.25 | -0.06% | 4,193.80 | -2.20% | |
| 58. | Nov 30, 2023 | $149.19 | $0.825 | -0.82% | 4,567.80 | 8.92% |
| 59. | Dec 31, 2023 | $148.36 | -0.56% | 4,769.83 | 4.42% | |
| Average (R): | 2.70% | 1.11% | ||||
| Standard deviation: | 13.63% | 5.31% | ||||
Show all
1 Data in US$ per share of common stock, adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
2 Rate of return on common stock of MPC during period t
3 Rate of return on S&P 500 (the market portfolio proxy) during period t
Variance and Covariance
Marathon Petroleum Corp., calculation of variance and covariance of returns
| t | Date | RMPC,t | RS&P 500,t | (RMPC,t–RMPC)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RMPC,t–RMPC)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Feb 28, 2019 | -5.61% | 2.97% | 69.11 | 3.49 | -15.52 |
| 2. | Mar 31, 2019 | -3.48% | 1.79% | 38.22 | 0.47 | -4.24 |
| 3. | Apr 30, 2019 | 1.70% | 3.93% | 0.99 | 7.98 | -2.81 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 58. | Nov 30, 2023 | -0.82% | 8.92% | 12.36 | 61.03 | -27.47 |
| 59. | Dec 31, 2023 | -0.56% | 4.42% | 10.60 | 11.00 | -10.80 |
| Total (Σ): | 10,773.16 | 1,634.30 | 2,478.55 | |||
| t | Date | RMPC,t | RS&P 500,t | (RMPC,t–RMPC)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RMPC,t–RMPC)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Feb 28, 2019 | -5.61% | 2.97% | 69.11 | 3.49 | -15.52 |
| 2. | Mar 31, 2019 | -3.48% | 1.79% | 38.22 | 0.47 | -4.24 |
| 3. | Apr 30, 2019 | 1.70% | 3.93% | 0.99 | 7.98 | -2.81 |
| 4. | May 31, 2019 | -23.57% | -6.58% | 690.33 | 59.04 | 201.88 |
| 5. | Jun 30, 2019 | 21.50% | 6.89% | 353.64 | 33.49 | 108.83 |
| 6. | Jul 31, 2019 | 0.91% | 1.31% | 3.19 | 0.04 | -0.37 |
| 7. | Aug 31, 2019 | -11.79% | -1.81% | 210.02 | 8.50 | 42.24 |
| 8. | Sep 30, 2019 | 23.45% | 1.72% | 430.61 | 0.37 | 12.71 |
| 9. | Oct 31, 2019 | 5.27% | 2.04% | 6.60 | 0.88 | 2.41 |
| 10. | Nov 30, 2019 | -4.35% | 3.40% | 49.65 | 5.28 | -16.20 |
| 11. | Dec 31, 2019 | -0.64% | 2.86% | 11.17 | 3.07 | -5.86 |
| 12. | Jan 31, 2020 | -9.54% | -0.16% | 149.89 | 1.61 | 15.53 |
| 13. | Feb 29, 2020 | -11.93% | -8.41% | 213.92 | 90.57 | 139.19 |
| 14. | Mar 31, 2020 | -50.19% | -12.51% | 2,797.25 | 185.44 | 720.23 |
| 15. | Apr 30, 2020 | 35.82% | 12.68% | 1,096.79 | 134.06 | 383.46 |
| 16. | May 31, 2020 | 11.35% | 4.53% | 74.78 | 11.71 | 29.59 |
| 17. | Jun 30, 2020 | 6.37% | 1.84% | 13.51 | 0.54 | 2.69 |
| 18. | Jul 31, 2020 | 2.19% | 5.51% | 0.26 | 19.40 | -2.23 |
| 19. | Aug 31, 2020 | -5.65% | 7.01% | 69.78 | 34.82 | -49.29 |
| 20. | Sep 30, 2020 | -17.26% | -3.92% | 398.33 | 25.29 | 100.36 |
| 21. | Oct 31, 2020 | 0.55% | -2.77% | 4.64 | 15.00 | 8.34 |
| 22. | Nov 30, 2020 | 33.76% | 10.75% | 964.94 | 93.10 | 299.72 |
| 23. | Dec 31, 2020 | 6.38% | 3.71% | 13.54 | 6.79 | 9.59 |
| 24. | Jan 31, 2021 | 4.35% | -1.11% | 2.73 | 4.93 | -3.67 |
| 25. | Feb 28, 2021 | 27.90% | 2.61% | 634.89 | 2.26 | 37.88 |
| 26. | Mar 31, 2021 | -2.07% | 4.24% | 22.73 | 9.85 | -14.96 |
| 27. | Apr 30, 2021 | 4.04% | 5.24% | 1.79 | 17.11 | 5.54 |
| 28. | May 31, 2021 | 12.09% | 0.55% | 88.25 | 0.31 | -5.23 |
| 29. | Jun 30, 2021 | -2.23% | 2.22% | 24.33 | 1.24 | -5.50 |
| 30. | Jul 31, 2021 | -8.61% | 2.27% | 127.82 | 1.37 | -13.22 |
| 31. | Aug 31, 2021 | 8.38% | 2.90% | 32.32 | 3.22 | 10.19 |
| 32. | Sep 30, 2021 | 4.29% | -4.76% | 2.52 | 34.37 | -9.30 |
| 33. | Oct 31, 2021 | 6.67% | 6.91% | 15.73 | 33.74 | 23.04 |
| 34. | Nov 30, 2021 | -6.83% | -0.83% | 90.72 | 3.76 | 18.47 |
| 35. | Dec 31, 2021 | 5.16% | 4.36% | 6.06 | 10.60 | 8.01 |
| 36. | Jan 31, 2022 | 12.13% | -5.26% | 88.88 | 40.51 | -60.00 |
| 37. | Feb 28, 2022 | 9.34% | -3.14% | 44.07 | 17.99 | -28.16 |
| 38. | Mar 31, 2022 | 9.80% | 3.58% | 50.40 | 6.11 | 17.55 |
| 39. | Apr 30, 2022 | 2.06% | -8.80% | 0.41 | 98.04 | 6.34 |
| 40. | May 31, 2022 | 17.32% | 0.01% | 213.65 | 1.21 | -16.09 |
| 41. | Jun 30, 2022 | -19.24% | -8.39% | 481.14 | 90.21 | 208.33 |
| 42. | Jul 31, 2022 | 11.49% | 9.11% | 77.36 | 64.09 | 70.42 |
| 43. | Aug 31, 2022 | 10.55% | -4.24% | 61.63 | 28.62 | -42.00 |
| 44. | Sep 30, 2022 | -1.41% | -9.34% | 16.88 | 109.11 | 42.92 |
| 45. | Oct 31, 2022 | 14.39% | 7.99% | 136.59 | 47.34 | 80.41 |
| 46. | Nov 30, 2022 | 7.87% | 5.38% | 26.72 | 18.23 | 22.07 |
| 47. | Dec 31, 2022 | -4.45% | -5.90% | 51.11 | 49.04 | 50.06 |
| 48. | Jan 31, 2023 | 10.42% | 6.18% | 59.64 | 25.70 | 39.15 |
| 49. | Feb 28, 2023 | -3.24% | -2.61% | 35.33 | 13.82 | 22.09 |
| 50. | Mar 31, 2023 | 9.09% | 3.51% | 40.79 | 5.76 | 15.32 |
| 51. | Apr 30, 2023 | -9.52% | 1.46% | 149.21 | 0.13 | -4.38 |
| 52. | May 31, 2023 | -13.39% | 0.25% | 258.98 | 0.74 | 13.80 |
| 53. | Jun 30, 2023 | 11.14% | 4.71% | 71.29 | 13.02 | 30.46 |
| 54. | Jul 31, 2023 | 14.08% | 4.85% | 129.57 | 13.99 | 42.57 |
| 55. | Aug 31, 2023 | 7.89% | -1.77% | 26.98 | 8.28 | -14.95 |
| 56. | Sep 30, 2023 | 6.00% | -4.87% | 10.91 | 35.73 | -19.75 |
| 57. | Oct 31, 2023 | -0.06% | -2.20% | 7.61 | 10.92 | 9.11 |
| 58. | Nov 30, 2023 | -0.82% | 8.92% | 12.36 | 61.03 | -27.47 |
| 59. | Dec 31, 2023 | -0.56% | 4.42% | 10.60 | 11.00 | -10.80 |
| Total (Σ): | 10,773.16 | 1,634.30 | 2,478.55 | |||
Show all
VarianceMPC = Σ(RMPC,t–RMPC)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 10,773.16 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 185.74
VarianceS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 1,634.30 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 28.18
CovarianceMPC, S&P 500 = Σ(RMPC,t–RMPC)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (59 – 1)
= 2,478.55 ÷ (59 – 1)
= 42.73
Systematic Risk (β) Estimation
| VarianceMPC | 185.74 |
| VarianceS&P 500 | 28.18 |
| CovarianceMPC, S&P 500 | 42.73 |
| Correlation coefficientMPC, S&P 5001 | 0.59 |
| βMPC2 | 1.52 |
| αMPC3 | 1.02% |
Calculations
1 Correlation coefficientMPC, S&P 500
= CovarianceMPC, S&P 500 ÷ (Standard deviationMPC × Standard deviationS&P 500)
= 42.73 ÷ (13.63% × 5.31%)
= 0.59
2 βMPC
= CovarianceMPC, S&P 500 ÷ VarianceS&P 500
= 42.73 ÷ 28.18
= 1.52
3 αMPC
= AverageMPC – βMPC × AverageS&P 500
= 2.70% – 1.52 × 1.11%
= 1.02%
Expected Rate of Return
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 4.81% |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | 13.55% |
| Systematic risk (β) of Marathon Petroleum Corp. common stock | βMPC | 1.52 |
| Expected rate of return on Marathon Petroleum Corp. common stock3 | E(RMPC) | 18.07% |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
3 E(RMPC) = RF + βMPC [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.81% + 1.52 [13.55% – 4.81%]
= 18.07%