Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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- Statement of Comprehensive Income
- Analysis of Profitability Ratios
- Analysis of Liquidity Ratios
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Net Profit Margin since 2006
- Current Ratio since 2006
- Price to Earnings (P/E) since 2006
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2006
- Analysis of Revenues
- Aggregate Accruals
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 705.96% per annum.
- GME price at the close of June 1, 2022 was $30.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.52 (21.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.67% per annum.
- GME price at the close of June 1, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GME price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
July 11, 2019 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
January 12, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 705.96% per annum.
- GME price at the close of June 1, 2022 was $30.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.52 (21.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
March 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
June 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.67% per annum.
- GME price at the close of June 1, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
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