Stock Analysis on Net

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since August 31, 2023.

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

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In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Dollar General Corp., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 7.96%
01 FCFE0 3,244,607
1 FCFE1 4,168,686 = 3,244,607 × (1 + 28.48%) 3,861,278
2 FCFE2 5,033,587 = 4,168,686 × (1 + 20.75%) 4,318,585
3 FCFE3 5,688,694 = 5,033,587 × (1 + 13.01%) 4,520,729
4 FCFE4 5,989,162 = 5,688,694 × (1 + 5.28%) 4,408,531
5 FCFE5 5,842,366 = 5,989,162 × (1 + -2.45%) 3,983,351
5 Terminal value (TV5) 54,734,917 = 5,842,366 × (1 + -2.45%) ÷ (7.96%-2.45%) 37,318,506
Intrinsic value of Dollar General Corp. common stock 58,410,980
 
Intrinsic value of Dollar General Corp. common stock (per share) $266.14
Current share price $138.50

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 4.43%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 13.60%
Systematic risk of Dollar General Corp. common stock βDG 0.38
 
Required rate of return on Dollar General Corp. common stock3 rDG 7.96%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rDG = RF + βDG [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.43% + 0.38 [13.60%4.43%]
= 7.96%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Dollar General Corp., PRAT model

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Average Feb 3, 2023 Jan 28, 2022 Jan 29, 2021 Jan 31, 2020 Feb 1, 2019 Feb 2, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Dividends paid 493,732 392,217 355,934 327,578 306,562 282,941
Net income 2,415,989 2,399,232 2,655,050 1,712,555 1,589,472 1,538,960
Net sales 37,844,863 34,220,449 33,746,839 27,753,973 25,625,043 23,470,967
Total assets 29,083,367 26,327,371 25,862,624 22,825,084 13,204,038 12,516,911
Shareholders’ equity 5,541,772 6,261,986 6,661,238 6,702,500 6,417,393 6,125,774
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.81 0.81 0.82
Profit margin2 6.38% 7.01% 7.87% 6.17% 6.20% 6.56%
Asset turnover3 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.22 1.94 1.88
Financial leverage4 5.25 4.20 3.88 3.41 2.06 2.04
Averages
Retention rate 0.82
Profit margin 6.70%
Asset turnover 1.49
Financial leverage 3.47
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 28.48%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-28), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-01-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-02).

2023 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income – Dividends paid) ÷ Net income
= (2,415,989493,732) ÷ 2,415,989
= 0.80

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income ÷ Net sales
= 100 × 2,415,989 ÷ 37,844,863
= 6.38%

3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= 37,844,863 ÷ 29,083,367
= 1.30

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity
= 29,083,367 ÷ 5,541,772
= 5.25

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.82 × 6.70% × 1.49 × 3.47
= 28.48%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (30,397,495 × 7.96%3,244,607) ÷ (30,397,495 + 3,244,607)
= -2.45%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Dollar General Corp. common stock (US$ in thousands)
FCFE0 = the last year Dollar General Corp. free cash flow to equity (US$ in thousands)
r = required rate of return on Dollar General Corp. common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Dollar General Corp., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 28.48%
2 g2 20.75%
3 g3 13.01%
4 g4 5.28%
5 and thereafter g5 -2.45%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.48% + (-2.45%28.48%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.75%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.48% + (-2.45%28.48%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 13.01%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 28.48% + (-2.45%28.48%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.28%