Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.14% per annum.
- KO price at the close of May 14, 2026 was $80.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.38 (13.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.48% per annum.
- KO price at the close of May 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 3.3532
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0304
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0304) – 1
= 12.93%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 836 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3532 + 0.0007 × 836 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(3.9819)
= $53.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 836 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3532 + 0.0007 × 836 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(3.8603)
= $47.48
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3532 + 0.0007 × 1,255 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.2665)
= $71.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y865)
= Exp(a + b × X865 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3532 + 0.0007 × 1,255 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.1449)
= $63.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.14% per annum.
- KO price at the close of May 14, 2026 was $80.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.38 (13.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: May 14, 2026
a = 3.6651
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0459
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0459) – 1
= 20.14%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 836 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6651 + 0.0004 × 836 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.0666)
= $58.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y577)
= Exp(a + b × X577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 836 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6651 + 0.0004 × 836 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(3.8831)
= $48.57
May 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6651 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.4323)
= $84.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6651 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0459)
= Exp(4.2488)
= $70.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 14.48% per annum.
- KO price at the close of May 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.