Carnival Corp. & plc (NYSE:CCL)

The financial ratios over the observed periods reflect significant volatility and shifts in market valuation metrics.

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio exhibited a downward trend from early 2019, falling from 12.02 in February 2019 to a low of 3.22 by February 2020, indicating a substantial reduction in market valuation relative to earnings prior to absent data points. Following a period of missing values, the ratio surged sharply to 55.6 by February 2024, suggesting a considerable increase in share price relative to earnings, possibly reflecting changing investor expectations or earnings volatility.

Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Ratio

This ratio also demonstrated a decline through early 2020, dropping from 11.3 in February 2019 to 2.77 by February 2020, consistent with the P/E trend. Missing values obscure several intervals; however, recent data from late 2023 and early 2024 show a considerable fluctuation between 41.11, 10.57, and 9.37, highlighting increased volatility in the relationship between share price and operating profit.

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio experienced notable fluctuations over the entire period. Initially exhibiting a moderate decline from 1.93 in February 2019 to 0.29 in February 2020, it then increased sharply, peaking at extremely high levels of 213.24 in May 2021 and 40.35 in February 2021. These spikes suggest extraordinary distortions, likely caused by significant changes in sales or share price during that period, possibly reflecting the impact of market disruptions or extraordinary events. Post-peak, the ratio normalized gradually towards values near 1.0 by early 2024.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio showed a general decline from 1.54 in February 2019 to 0.25 by February 2020, indicating decreasing market valuation relative to book value. Subsequently, the ratio recovered and showed increasing variability, reaching as high as 3.85 by May 2023 and maintaining elevated levels above 3.0 into early 2024. This pattern may reflect changes in asset valuations, investor sentiment, or capital structure adjustments over time.

Overall, the financial ratios reveal significant disruptions and recovery phases within the period studied, with pronounced volatility around early 2020 and a notable recovery leading to elevated valuation multiples in recent quarters. The marked spikes and dips are indicative of atypical market conditions influencing both earnings and asset base metrics.

The analysis of the financial data reveals distinct trends in share price, earnings per share (EPS), and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio over the observed periods.

Share Price (US$)

The share price demonstrated a downward trend from early 2019 to early 2020, declining from $51.90 in February 2019 to $8.49 in February 2020. This was followed by a modest recovery through late 2020 into early 2021, where prices rose to $29 in February 2021. Thereafter, from mid-2021 to early 2023, the share price again decreased sharply, reaching a low of $7.03 in August 2022. Post this low point, a gradual recovery trend was visible, with the share price increasing to $17.19 by February 2024.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) (US$)

Initially, EPS values were positive and relatively stable in early 2019, maintaining levels above $4.00. A significant downturn began in early 2020, coinciding with global economic disruptions, as EPS plummeted into negative territory starting May 2020 (−$3.77). Negative EPS values persisted throughout the following periods, although the magnitude of losses generally decreased over time, improving from −$9.87 in February 2021 to −$0.06 in February 2024. Importantly, EPS turned positive again by the final period, reaching $0.31.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio mirrored the initial share price and EPS trends, holding steady in the 10–12 range during most of 2019. This ratio dropped significantly in early 2020, reflecting declining EPS and share price. Data for the P/E ratio is incomplete for several subsequent periods, but it is evident that by February 2024, the P/E ratio had surged to 55.6. This sharp increase corresponds with a near breakeven and slightly positive EPS combined with a recovering share price, indicating elevated market expectations relative to earnings.

In summary, the data reveals a significant impact on financial performance beginning in early 2020, with large negative earnings and depressed share prices. Over time, there is a gradual but clear recovery in both share price and earnings metrics. However, the high P/E ratio at the end of the period suggests that investors are pricing in anticipated future improvements despite recent modest earnings figures.

The share price exhibited a general declining trend from February 2019 through February 2020, with a steep drop from 46.5 to 8.49 by the end of February 2020. This decline was followed by a period of volatility and some partial recovery, with prices fluctuating between approximately 7 and 19 US dollars until mid-2023. In the last four quarters, the share price showed a positive trend, rising from 9.89 in February 2023 to 17.19 by February 2024.

The operating profit per share displayed stability during the first year until February 2020, with values near 4.5 US dollars. However, a sharp decline occurred starting from February 2020, turning negative and reaching the lowest point of -8.36 in November 2019. The negative trend persisted for several quarters with some fluctuations but began to improve gradually from August 2022 onward. By February 2024, operating profit per share turned positive again, reaching 1.84 US dollars.

The price-to-operating-profit (P/OP) ratio was consistent within a range of approximately 9 to 11 from early 2019 to early 2020, indicating a stable valuation relative to operating profit. This ratio was not reported during the quarters with negative operating profit, indicating challenges in valuation during this period. In the most recent periods, when operating profit returned to positive values, the P/OP ratio showed a spike to 41.11 followed by a correction back to around 9 to 10, suggesting an initial market overreaction or revaluation as profitability recovered.

Summary of trends:

The data reveals a significant disruption beginning in early 2020, reflecting a challenging operating environment with sharp declines in share price and profitability. This disruption led to prolonged negative profitability and share price volatility.

Signs of recovery appear starting in 2022, with gradual improvement in operating profit turning positive and share prices trending upward since early 2023.

The P/OP ratio spikes and subsequent normalization suggest a recalibration of market expectations in response to financial performance improvements.

Share Price Trend

The share price experienced a significant decline from early 2019 through early 2020, dropping from $51.90 to a low of $8.49 by February 2020. This was followed by a modest recovery with fluctuations, reaching approximately $29.00 by February 2021. Subsequently, the share price exhibited volatility with a downward trend through mid-2022, hitting around $7.03 in August 2022. From late 2022 to early 2024, there was a gradual recovery, with the share price rising to $17.19 by February 2024.

Sales per Share Analysis

Sales per share showed a gradual decline from $26.95 in February 2019 to a sharp drop during 2020, coinciding with external adverse factors, falling to $0.12 in May 2021. Starting mid-2021, sales per share began to recover steadily, increasing quarter over quarter and reaching $17.23 by February 2024. This indicates a slow but continuous rebound in sales performance after the downturn experienced in 2020 and early 2021.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio Insights

The P/S ratio displayed considerable volatility over the period. After decreasing from 1.93 in early 2019 to a trough of 0.29 by February 2020, it then surged sharply to extreme high levels in 2021, peaking at 213.24 in May 2021. This spike likely reflects the substantial drop in sales per share relative to the share price at that time. Following this peak, the P/S ratio gradually normalized to more typical levels between 0.86 and 1.29 from 2022 onwards, stabilizing around 1.00 by February 2024. This trend suggests a recovery in sales while the share price remained relatively moderate, leading to a normalization of valuation metrics.

Overall Financial Pattern

The period exhibits a pronounced impact on financial performance starting early 2020, characterized by a sharp decline in both share price and sales per share, with an anomalous spike in the P/S ratio due to the disproportionate drop in sales. The recovery phase is marked by a steady improvement in sales per share and a corresponding stabilization of the P/S ratio. The share price, while recovering, remains significantly below pre-2020 levels as of early 2024. This indicates an ongoing gradual restoration of market confidence and operational performance following a significant downturn.

The analysis of the quarterly financial data reveals notable fluctuations in the share price, book value per share (BVPS), and the price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio over the observed period.

Share Price

The share price experienced a significant decline from early 2019 through February 2020, dropping from $51.90 to $8.49. Following this sharp decrease, there was a moderate recovery, with prices rising to a peak of $29 by February 2021. However, this was succeeded by another decline reaching a low of $7.03 in August 2022. Since then, the share price demonstrated a partial recovery trend, climbing to $17.19 by February 2024. Overall, the share price shows volatility with notable troughs corresponding to early 2020 and mid-2022 periods.

Book Value per Share (BVPS)

BVPS exhibited a generally downward trend throughout the period under review. Starting at $33.81 in February 2019, it declined steadily, with occasional minor decreases, reaching its lowest point of $4.74 in February 2023. The decline is significant and indicates considerable erosion of book value over these years. Between February 2023 and February 2024, the BVPS showed signs of stabilization, fluctuating slightly but remaining around the $5 mark, suggesting that the decline slowed towards the end of the period.

Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio displays marked variability corresponding to the movements in share price and book value. Initially, the ratio was relatively stable, ranging between 1.24 and 1.54 from early 2019 to late 2019. In early 2020, the ratio dropped sharply to 0.25, reflecting the sharp share price decrease juxtaposed with the book value decline. Subsequently, there was a recovery in the ratio, peaking at values above 2.0 between late 2021 and early 2023, indicating that the market price increased relative to the book value, despite the book value declining. The ratio reached the highest values near 3.85 in mid-2023 before fluctuating moderately and ending at 3.37 in February 2024.

In summary, the data highlight significant volatility in market valuation metrics, characterized by a sharp initial decrease in both share price and book value around early 2020. While book value consistently eroded over time, the share price has undergone periods of recovery. The P/BV ratio’s variability reflects these divergent trends, with market price movements often outpacing changes in book value, suggesting investors’ expectations or market sentiment may have influenced valuation independently of fundamental book value declines.