Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio data starts from the first quarter of 2021, with a high value of 107.74, signaling significant investor optimism or elevated earnings expectations at that time. Subsequently, the ratio declined sharply over the following quarters, reaching a low of 4.21 by the first quarter of 2022. This decline indicates either an increase in earnings or a correction in stock price valuations. After reaching this low point, the ratio fluctuated modestly between approximately 4.8 and 6.4 for the remainder of 2022, suggesting relative stability in earnings valuation during this period. However, in 2023, the ratio rose again, peaking at 34.67 in the third quarter, indicating renewed investor optimism or potential volatility in earnings. Data for late 2023 and 2024 is unavailable, limiting further trend analysis.

Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Ratio

The P/OP ratio exhibits a trend closely mirroring the P/E ratio, beginning with a high of 101.69 in Q1 2021 and declining rapidly to a low around 3.79 by Q1 2022. After this steep decline, the ratio remained relatively steady in the 4.2 to 5.7 range through the end of 2022, mirroring stability in operating profit valuation during this period. A sharp increase occurred in 2023, with the ratio rising to 81.57 by mid-year, indicating sudden changes in operating profit or market perception. Post mid-2023 data is not provided, restricting further assessment.

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio demonstrates a strong downward trend beginning at an extraordinarily high value of 309.64 in the first quarter of 2021, reflecting lofty sales expectations or overvaluation of the stock relative to sales at that time. This ratio declined precipitously over the next several quarters, reaching a low of approximately 2.76 in Q4 2022. This represents a normalization of sales valuation relative to price. Through 2023 and into early 2024, the P/S ratio showed moderate fluctuations, generally ranging between 2.9 and 5.5, suggesting some volatility but overall a stabilized valuation level relative to sales. However, between the second and fourth quarters of 2024, the ratio rose notably from 3.9 to 7.39, indicating an uptick in price relative to sales or a potential decrease in sales.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio shows diverse variability over the analyzed period. Initially, from Q1 2020 through late 2020, the ratio remained moderately high between approximately 9.67 and 24.16, revealing a period of elevated valuation relative to book value. The ratio then began a consistent downward trend through 2021 and 2022, falling to a range between 2.2 and 4.1, indicating that market valuation moved closer to the company’s book value. During 2023 and early 2024, the ratio remained relatively low and stable, fluctuating between roughly 1.6 and 3.8, which suggests a more conservative market valuation relative to the company’s net asset base.

Overall Insights

Across all valuation metrics, a marked decline is observable following early 2021, reflecting either a rapid improvement in financial results, contraction in market valuation, or combination of both. The initial high ratios suggest a period of significant investor enthusiasm and potential overvaluation. Following this, the company’s price multiples normalized considerably, stabilizing at lower levels through 2022. The fluctuations observed during 2023, particularly sharp increases in both P/E and P/OP ratios, point to a period of increased market uncertainty or revaluation. The P/S ratio's late 2024 increase warrants attention as it may indicate shifting sales performance or market sentiment. Finally, the relatively low and stable P/BV ratios in the later periods could indicate more grounded valuations in relation to the company’s asset base.

Share Price Trends

The share price exhibited significant volatility over the analyzed periods. From early 2020 to the end of 2021, the price sharply increased from approximately $53 to a peak around $416 in mid-2021, followed by a notable decline below $100 by the end of 2023. The price then experienced minor fluctuations, rising again to roughly $126 in early 2024 before dropping to about $50 by the third quarter of 2024.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) Trends

Initially, the EPS was negative through 2020, with values worsening from -$1.36 to -$1.87. Beginning in the first quarter of 2021, EPS turned positive and escalated sharply, reaching a high of approximately $36.80 in early 2022. Following this peak, EPS gradually declined throughout 2022 and 2023, eventually returning to negative territory by mid-2023. The decline continued through 2024, with EPS reaching around -$15.57 in the third quarter but then improving somewhat to -$5.78 by the last reported period.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio Trends

P/E ratios were only available starting in the first quarter of 2021. Initially, the ratio was very high at roughly 108, indicating that the share price was extremely valued relative to earnings. The P/E ratio then decreased substantially, reaching single digits by early 2022 and fluctuating between approximately 4 and 11 through 2022 and early 2023. The P/E data was not reported beyond this point, coinciding with the periods of negative or declining EPS.

Overall Insights

The data reflects an initial period of investment and optimism signified by a dramatic increase in share price and corresponding improvements in EPS during 2021 and early 2022. This was followed by a sustained deterioration in profitability and stock valuation after the peak. The return to negative EPS from mid-2023 onwards suggests challenges impacting earnings, mirrored by the falling share price in 2023 and 2024. The absence of P/E ratios in the latter periods aligns with the negative earnings figures, indicating reduced relevance of this metric under current conditions.

Share Price Trend

The share price exhibited substantial volatility over the analyzed periods. The price started at a moderate level, followed by a sharp increase during 2020 and early 2021, reaching a peak in mid-2021. Thereafter, a steady decline ensued from late 2021 through to the last quarter of 2024, with occasional minor rebounds. The most notable high was around mid-2021, while the lowest recent values appeared toward the end of the examined timeline.

Operating Profit Per Share Trend

Operating profit per share demonstrated a marked improvement during the initial periods, transitioning from negative values in early 2020 to positive and increasing values through 2021. The peak operating profit per share occurred around the end of 2021 and early 2022. Subsequently, there was a pronounced downward trajectory, with profit per share turning negative again in 2023 and continuing to decline into 2024. This indicates a deterioration in operational profitability after an initial period of strong gains.

Price to Operating Profit Ratio (P/OP)

The P/OP ratio data is incomplete but shows particularly high ratios in mid-2021 and early 2023, suggesting periods of overvaluation relative to operating profit or possibly signaling market expectations ahead of actual profitability. The ratio sharply decreased as operating profits rose, indicating improved valuation relative to earnings at the peak operational performance periods. The lack of ratio data in later periods might be due to negative operating profits making the ratio calculation invalid.

Overall Financial Analysis

The data indicates a strong growth phase through 2020 and 2021, characterized by rising share prices and improving operating profits per share. However, following this growth, both share price and operational profitability display significant declines from late 2021 onwards. The shift to negative operating profits in 2023 and their persistence into 2024 highlight challenges in maintaining profitability. Share price trends partially mirror this operational downturn but also incorporate volatility likely influenced by external market factors. The incomplete and variable P/OP ratio data corroborates these dynamics, reflecting changing market valuations relative to profitability metrics over time.

The analysis of the financial data reveals several notable trends concerning the share price, sales per share, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio over multiple quarters from 2020 through 2024.

Share Price Trends

The share price exhibited a significant upward movement from March 2020 through mid-2021, peaking at 416.26 US$ in June 2021. This peak was followed by a general decline and volatility, with the price falling to 77.53 US$ by September 2023, before showing some recovery to 125.59 US$ in March 2024. After March 2024, the share price again decreased, reaching 50.28 US$ in September 2024. Overall, the share price showed substantial volatility with both sharp rises and declines across the periods.

Sales per Share Trends

Sales per share data began to be reported starting March 2021, displaying a rapid increase from 0.5 US$ to 56.75 US$ by September 2022. This represents significant sales growth within the span of about a year and a half. However, sales per share then displayed a declining trend from September 2022 onward, decreasing steadily to 12.90 US$ by September 2024. This indicates that after an initial period of strong revenue growth, sales growth slowed and diminished gradually.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio Trends

The P/S ratio started extremely high at 309.64 in March 2021, reflecting an exceptionally high market valuation relative to sales at that time. This ratio then declined sharply throughout 2021 and 2022, stabilizing around values between approximately 3 and 4 from late 2022 to mid-2023. During the most recent periods in 2024, the P/S ratio exhibited an increasing trend, rising from 3.9 in March 2024 to a peak of 9.61 in June 2024, before falling again to 3.90 in September 2024. The fluctuations in the P/S ratio indicate changing market perceptions of valuation relative to sales, with initial overvaluation, followed by normalization, and then recent heightened valuation periods.

Overall Observations

The data shows an initial phase of rapid growth in sales and share price, suggesting strong market enthusiasm and expanding revenues. Following the peak in mid-2021, both share price and sales per share experienced consistent decreases, signaling challenges in sustaining growth momentum. The P/S ratio’s decline and subsequent fluctuations reflect adjustments in market valuation relative to the company’s sales performance. The recent lower share price and sales per share levels, together with P/S ratio fluctuations, suggest increased uncertainty or market recalibration regarding growth prospects and company valuation in the later periods.

The analysis of the quarterly financial data reveals several notable trends in the company's share price, book value per share (BVPS), and price-to-book value ratio (P/BV) over the observed periods.

Share Price

The share price exhibited significant volatility throughout the periods. Initially, from early 2020 to the end of 2020, the share price rose sharply, reaching a peak in December 2020. This increase was followed by fluctuations, including another peak in mid-2021, after which the share price experienced a general decline. From early 2022 onwards, the share price showed a downward trend with intermittent recoveries, reaching notably lower levels by the third quarter of 2024 compared to its earlier highs.

Book Value per Share (BVPS)

The BVPS demonstrated a steady and consistent upward trajectory over the entire period. Starting from a relatively low base in early 2020, the BVPS increased steadily through 2021, 2022, and into 2023, before showing a slight decline in 2023 and stabilizing in 2024. This trend indicates growth in the company's equity base per share, reflecting accumulation of net assets or retained earnings over time.

Price-to-Book Value Ratio (P/BV)

The P/BV ratio showed a declining trend overall, with pronounced variability. Early in 2020, the ratio was high, reflecting a market price significantly above book value. This ratio peaked sharply at the end of 2020 and mid-2021, coinciding with the peaks in share price, but then declined markedly thereafter. From 2022 onwards, the P/BV ratio generally decreased, reaching lower levels by late 2024, indicating that the market valuation relative to the book value per share has become more conservative.

In summary, the company’s book value per share has grown consistently, suggesting strengthening fundamentals. However, the share price has shown volatility with an overall decline in the market valuation when compared to book value in the recent periods, as reflected by the decreasing price-to-book ratios. This combination might suggest investor caution or a reassessment of growth prospects despite improved book value metrics.