Stock Analysis on Net

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since November 22, 2022.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Dollar Tree Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2022 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Dollar Tree Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Net income (loss)
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents2
Interest expense, net
Interest expense, operating lease liability3
Adjusted interest expense, net
Tax benefit of interest expense, net4
Adjusted interest expense, net, after taxes5
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss).

3 2022 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

4 2022 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense, net = Adjusted interest expense, net × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

5 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss).


Net Income (Loss) Trend
The net income exhibited significant fluctuations over the observed periods. Initially, there was a substantial increase from approximately $896.2 million in early 2017 to about $1.714 billion in early 2018. However, this positive trend was interrupted by a reversal in early 2019, where the net income turned negative, with a loss of approximately $1.59 billion. Subsequently, the company recovered, returning to positive net income values, rising to around $827 million in 2020, followed by further increases to $1.342 billion and $1.328 billion in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This pattern indicates a volatile earnings performance with a notable setback in 2019 but a steady recovery thereafter.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) Trend
The net operating profit after taxes mirrored a similar trajectory to net income. It rose from about $1.187 billion in 2017 to $1.636 billion in 2018, before experiencing a substantial downturn to a negative $1.11 billion in 2019. Following this decline, NOPAT rebounded to approximately $1.177 billion in 2020 and continued to improve to $1.687 billion in 2021. In 2022, there was a slight decrease to around $1.622 billion, although levels remained strong relative to the earlier years except for 2019. The NOPAT trend reflects the operational challenges faced in 2019 and subsequent recovery, showcasing operational resilience in the following years.
Insights and Observations
The financial performance over the six-year span reveals a company experiencing cyclical volatility, with 2019 marking a particularly challenging year, featuring declines in both net income and operational profitability into negative territory. The recovery phase post-2019 was marked by restored profitability and an ability to sustain high levels of operating profit, suggesting effective management responses and operational adjustments. The relative stability of net income and NOPAT in the last two periods indicates a stabilization phase, with strong earnings sustained despite minor fluctuations. Overall, the patterns suggest responsiveness to external or internal challenges and a capacity for financial recovery and growth.

Cash Operating Taxes

Dollar Tree Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Provision for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense, net
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).


Provision for Income Taxes
The provision for income taxes shows considerable fluctuation over the six-year period. It started at a high value of 433,200 thousand US dollars in early 2017, then sharply declined to a negative figure of -10,300 thousand US dollars in early 2018, indicating a possible tax benefit or adjustment during that year. Subsequently, the provision increased again, reaching 281,800 thousand US dollars in early 2019 and maintaining similarly elevated levels in the following years, with values of 271,700, 397,900, and 304,300 thousand US dollars in early 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively. Overall, the provision exhibits volatility, but generally remains in the positive range, with a notable exception in 2018.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes demonstrate a clear declining trend from 2017 through 2020. Initially, the amount stood at 786,228 thousand US dollars in early 2017 and decreased steadily over the next three years to 664,515, 424,099, and 353,258 thousand US dollars by early 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively. After 2020, this figure experienced a rebound, increasing to 450,561 thousand US dollars in early 2021, before slightly decreasing again to 411,860 thousand US dollars in early 2022. This suggests a reduction in cash operating tax outflows mid-period, followed by partial recovery in subsequent years.

Invested Capital

Dollar Tree Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Current portion of long-term debt
Long-term debt, net, excluding current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Equity equivalents3
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax4
Adjusted shareholders’ equity
Construction in progress5
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity.

4 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

5 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Total reported debt & leases

The total reported debt and leases show a consistent downward trend from January 28, 2017, to January 30, 2021, decreasing from approximately 12.43 billion US dollars to about 9.64 billion US dollars. This indicates a concerted effort towards debt reduction over this period. However, there is a slight increase in the debt level in the latest period, ending on January 29, 2022, rising to roughly 9.97 billion US dollars.

Shareholders’ equity

Shareholders’ equity exhibits fluctuations over the analyzed periods but generally trends upward. It increased substantially between January 28, 2017, and February 3, 2018, rising from approximately 5.39 billion to 7.18 billion US dollars. This was followed by a decline in the following year to around 5.64 billion US dollars, and then a steady recovery and growth through January 29, 2022, reaching about 7.72 billion US dollars. The overall increase suggests strengthening equity positions over the long term.

Invested capital

Invested capital shows a pattern characterized by an initial increase from January 28, 2017, to February 3, 2018, peaking at approximately 19.85 billion US dollars. Subsequently, there is a decline over the next two years, bottoming out at about 16.99 billion US dollars in February 1, 2020, before a gradual increase resumes, reaching approximately 18.20 billion US dollars by January 29, 2022. This trend suggests a period of contraction followed by renewed investment activities or asset accumulation.

Overall analysis

The data portray a company that has actively managed its capital structure, notably reducing total reported debt over a significant period while recovering from a dip in shareholders’ equity. The invested capital trend aligns with these dynamics, showcasing initial growth, mid-term contraction, and later resurgence. The slight uptick in debt in the most recent reporting period warrants monitoring, although the continuous increase in equity and invested capital indicates a potentially improving financial position.


Cost of Capital

Dollar Tree Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 33.70%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 33.70%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt3 ÷ = × × (1 – 35.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 35.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Dollar Tree Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Costco Wholesale Corp.
Target Corp.
Walmart Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2022 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit Margin

Dollar Tree Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Jan 29, 2022 Jan 30, 2021 Feb 1, 2020 Feb 2, 2019 Feb 3, 2018 Jan 28, 2017
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1
Net sales
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Costco Wholesale Corp.
Target Corp.
Walmart Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-01-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-01-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-02-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-02-02), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-02-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-01-28).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2022 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Net sales
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.