Stock Analysis on Net

CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since April 20, 2023.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

CSX Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2022 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The net operating profit after taxes experienced fluctuations over the observed period. Beginning at $4,106 million in 2018, NOPAT showed a marginal increase in 2019 to $4,174 million. However, there was a noticeable decline in 2020, decreasing to $3,545 million, which could indicate operational challenges or external factors affecting profitability during that year. Subsequently, the NOPAT rebounded strongly in 2021 and 2022, reaching $4,534 million and $4,863 million respectively, suggesting a recovery and improvement in operational efficiency or market conditions.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital exhibited a generally stable and slightly declining trend from 2018 through 2020, moving from 14.53% to 14.01%. This decrease may reflect more favorable financing conditions or a reduction in perceived risk. In 2021 and 2022, the cost of capital slightly increased to 14.58% and 14.61%, indicating a possible rise in risk profile or changes in market interest rates and investor expectations.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed a steady upward trend across the five-year period. Starting at $34,219 million in 2018, the figure gradually increased each year, reaching $38,278 million in 2022. This consistent growth indicates ongoing investment in assets or business expansion efforts, which may be aligned with the company's long-term strategic objectives.
Economic Profit
Economic profit remained negative throughout the entire period, although the magnitude of losses varied. In 2018, the economic profit was negative $867 million, slightly improving to negative $760 million in 2019. A significant deterioration occurred in 2020, where economic profit declined sharply to negative $1,729 million, coinciding with the drop in NOPAT and possibly amplified by the broader economic or sector-specific challenges. Improvements were noted thereafter, with economic profit recovering to negative $953 million in 2021 and further improving to negative $729 million in 2022. Despite these improvements, the sustained negative economic profit suggests the company has not generated returns above its cost of capital during these years.
Overall Analysis
The company demonstrated resilience and recovery in operating profit after a downturn in 2020. The continued increase in invested capital suggests strategic asset growth, yet the persistent negative economic profit highlights that returns have not sufficiently exceeded the cost of capital. The marginal fluctuations in the cost of capital indicate relatively stable financing costs, with a slight uptick in the latter years. The trends point to potential areas for management focus on enhancing value creation and ensuring investments generate adequate returns to surpass capital costs.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

CSX Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Net earnings
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents3
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability4
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense5
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes6
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income7
Investment income, after taxes8
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net earnings.

4 2022 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

5 2022 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

6 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net earnings.

7 2022 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data reveals several key trends concerning profitability over the analyzed five-year period. Net earnings exhibited an initial slight increase from 2018 to 2019, growing marginally from 3,309 million USD to 3,331 million USD. This was followed by a noticeable decline in 2020 down to 2,765 million USD, indicating a downturn in earnings performance during that year. Subsequently, net earnings demonstrated a robust recovery, increasing significantly to 3,781 million USD in 2021 and further to 4,166 million USD in 2022, surpassing earlier results. This indicates a strong rebound and an overall positive trajectory post-2020.

Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) exhibits a pattern comparable to net earnings, although at consistently higher absolute values. From 2018 to 2019, NOPAT increased slightly from 4,106 million USD to 4,174 million USD, similar to the initial net earnings rise. In 2020, NOPAT declined noticeably to 3,545 million USD, coinciding with the drop observed in net earnings. Afterwards, there was a marked recovery in 2021, with NOPAT rising to 4,534 million USD and continuing upward to 4,863 million USD in 2022, reflecting improvement in operational profitability.

Net Earnings Trends
- Slight growth from 2018 to 2019
- Decline in 2020, possibly reflecting adverse conditions
- Strong recovery and growth in 2021 and 2022, reaching record highs in the period
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) Trends
- Positive growth early in the period (2018-2019)
- Decrease in 2020 aligned with net earnings downturn
- Significant rebound in 2021 and continued growth in 2022, indicating operational efficiency improvements
Overall Insight
The data suggests resilience in profitability following a challenging 2020, with both net earnings and NOPAT showing strong recovery and growth thereafter. Operational profits consistently exceeded net earnings, implying favorable non-operating factors or financial management contributing positively to net results.

Cash Operating Taxes

CSX Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Income tax expense
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).


The financial data reflects the progression of income tax expense and cash operating taxes from 2018 to 2022, measured in millions of US dollars.

Income Tax Expense
This item shows a fluctuating but generally increasing trend across the five-year period. The expense declined slightly from 995 million in 2018 to 985 million in 2019, followed by a more noticeable decrease to 862 million in 2020. However, from 2020 onward, there was a significant rise to 1,170 million in 2021 and a further increase to 1,248 million in 2022, surpassing earlier years’ figures.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes exhibit a similar pattern to income tax expense. Starting at 854 million in 2018, the value increased marginally to 862 million in 2019, then decreased moderately to 842 million in 2020. Subsequently, there was a considerable rise to 1,159 million in 2021 and an additional increase to 1,284 million in 2022. The growth in 2021 and 2022 was strong enough to exceed the levels observed prior to 2020.

Overall, both income tax expense and cash operating taxes suffered declines in 2020, possibly reflecting economic conditions or operational factors impacting taxable income or tax payments during that year. The subsequent two years show recovery and robust increases, indicating higher taxable profits or changes in tax rates or policies. Notably, cash operating taxes slightly outpaced income tax expense in the last two years, which could suggest timing differences or changes in tax payment structures.


Invested Capital

CSX Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
Equity equivalents4
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax5
Non-controlling minority interest
Adjusted shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX
Construction in progress6
Investments at fair value7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of equity equivalents to shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX.

5 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

6 Subtraction of construction in progress.

7 Subtraction of investments at fair value.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases demonstrated an overall increasing trend across the observed periods. Starting at $15,060 million at the end of 2018, the figure rose steadily to $18,604 million by the end of 2022. There was a noticeable increment from 2019 to 2020, followed by a slight decline in 2021, and then an uptick again in 2022 reaching the highest value in the series.
Shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX
Shareholders’ equity showed fluctuations during the five-year period. Beginning at $12,563 million in 2018, it decreased to $11,848 million in 2019. Subsequently, the equity improved, peaking at $13,490 million in 2021, before declining again to $12,615 million in 2022. This pattern suggests variable equity performance with no consistent growth trajectory.
Invested capital
Invested capital displayed a consistent growth pattern over the period examined. The value increased incrementally from $34,219 million in 2018 to $38,278 million in 2022. The growth was steady with modest year-to-year increases, indicating a gradual expansion of the capital base over time.

Cost of Capital

CSX Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, including current maturities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, including current maturities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, including current maturities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, including current maturities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, including current maturities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, including current maturities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, including current maturities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, including current maturities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Long-term debt, including current maturities3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Long-term debt, including current maturities. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

CSX Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
FedEx Corp.
Uber Technologies Inc.
Union Pacific Corp.
United Airlines Holdings Inc.
United Parcel Service Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2022 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit has remained negative throughout the observed period, indicating that the company consistently failed to generate returns exceeding its cost of capital. Although there was a notable improvement from 2020 to 2022, with the loss decreasing from -1,729 million USD in 2020 to -729 million USD in 2022, the values persistently reflect a shortfall. This suggests ongoing challenges in achieving profitability above capital costs despite some recovery.
Invested Capital
The invested capital has shown a gradual increasing trend over the five years, rising from 34,219 million USD at the end of 2018 to 38,278 million USD by the end of 2022. This steady increase implies a consistent commitment to investment activities or asset accumulation, potentially aimed at supporting future growth or operational capacity.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio has remained negative throughout the period, which aligns with the negative economic profit trend. The ratio slightly improved from -4.59% in 2020 to -1.9% in 2022, moving closer to zero but still reflecting the company's cost of capital exceeding its returns. This gradual improvement signals a reduction in the gap between returns and capital costs, although the company has yet to achieve a positive spread.
Summary of Trends
Overall, despite increasing invested capital, the company has struggled to generate sufficient returns to cover its capital costs, as evidenced by persistent negative economic profit and economic spread ratio values. However, the decreasing magnitude of economic losses and narrowing negative spread observed in the most recent years suggests some progress toward improving financial efficiency and profitability metrics.

Economic Profit Margin

CSX Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Revenue
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
FedEx Corp.
Uber Technologies Inc.
Union Pacific Corp.
United Airlines Holdings Inc.
United Parcel Service Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2022 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Revenue
The revenue demonstrated variability over the analyzed period. Starting at $12,250 million in 2018, it slightly decreased to $11,937 million in 2019, followed by a more pronounced decline to $10,583 million in 2020. Subsequently, revenue rebounded to $12,522 million in 2021 and increased further to $14,853 million in 2022. This indicates a recovery and growth trend after a temporary downturn in 2019 and 2020.
Economic Profit
The economic profit consistently remained negative across all years, indicating that the company did not generate returns above its cost of capital during the period. The loss was highest in 2020 at -$1,729 million. It showed improvement in 2021 and 2022, reaching -$953 million and -$729 million, respectively. Despite this improvement, the persistent negative values suggest ongoing challenges in achieving economic value creation.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin followed a trend similar to economic profit. It started at -7.07% in 2018 and slightly improved to -6.37% in 2019. There was a substantial deterioration in 2020, plummeting to -16.33%. The margin improved significantly in the following years, reaching -7.61% in 2021 and further to -4.91% in 2022. This reflects a gradual enhancement in profitability relative to revenue, though still remaining negative.