Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
CSX Corp., FCFE calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).
Analysis of cash flow performance indicates a general upward trajectory in operational efficiency coupled with a volatile but recovering free cash flow to equity (FCFE) profile between 2018 and 2022.
- Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
- Operating cash flows demonstrated consistent long-term growth, increasing from 4,641 million USD in 2018 to 5,619 million USD in 2022. Although a temporary contraction occurred in 2020, with cash flow dipping to 4,263 million USD, the subsequent recovery was robust, resulting in a peak value by the end of the analyzed period.
- Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Trends
- FCFE exhibited significant volatility, characterized by a sharp decline from 6,196 million USD in 2018 to a low of 2,948 million USD in 2020. This represent a reduction of approximately 52% over three years. However, a strong recovery trend followed, with FCFE rising to 3,411 million USD in 2021 and reaching 5,546 million USD by the end of 2022.
- Comparative Analysis of OCF and FCFE
- A notable divergence is observed in 2018, where FCFE exceeded operating cash flows by 1,555 million USD, suggesting a period of significant net borrowing or asset divestiture. From 2019 through 2022, the relationship inverted, with operating cash flows consistently exceeding FCFE. This pattern indicates that capital expenditures and debt repayments generally outweighed new debt issuance during this interval. By 2022, the gap between operating cash flow and FCFE narrowed significantly to 73 million USD, indicating a close alignment between operational cash generation and the cash available to equity holders.
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Price to FCFE Ratio, Current
CSX Corp., current P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| No. shares of common stock outstanding | 2,033,054,922 |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | |
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions) | 5,546) |
| FCFE per share | 2.73 |
| Current share price (P) | 30.81 |
| Valuation Ratio | |
| P/FCFE | 11.29 |
| Benchmarks | |
| P/FCFE, Competitors1 | |
| FedEx Corp. | 7.52 |
| Uber Technologies Inc. | 13.17 |
| Union Pacific Corp. | 26.90 |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | — |
| United Parcel Service Inc. | 11.46 |
| P/FCFE, Sector | |
| Transportation | 27.20 |
| P/FCFE, Industry | |
| Industrials | 39.12 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
1 Click competitor name to see calculations.
If the company P/FCFE is lower then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively undervalued.
Otherwise, if the company P/FCFE is higher then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively overvalued.
Price to FCFE Ratio, Historical
CSX Corp., historical P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. shares of common stock outstanding1 | 2,062,605,434 | 2,193,389,444 | 2,287,515,174 | 2,321,476,695 | 2,446,891,098 | |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | ||||||
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions)2 | 5,546) | 3,411) | 2,948) | 4,929) | 6,196) | |
| FCFE per share3 | 2.69 | 1.56 | 1.29 | 2.12 | 2.53 | |
| Share price1, 4 | 31.67 | 35.17 | 29.39 | 26.50 | 22.70 | |
| Valuation Ratio | ||||||
| P/FCFE5 | 11.78 | 22.62 | 22.81 | 12.48 | 8.96 | |
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| P/FCFE, Competitors6 | ||||||
| FedEx Corp. | 19.48 | 36.75 | — | — | — | |
| Uber Technologies Inc. | 333.68 | 139.66 | — | — | — | |
| Union Pacific Corp. | 13.19 | 17.16 | — | — | — | |
| United Airlines Holdings Inc. | — | 2.58 | — | — | — | |
| United Parcel Service Inc. | 21.80 | 22.62 | — | — | — | |
| P/FCFE, Sector | ||||||
| Transportation | 23.54 | 19.46 | — | — | — | |
| P/FCFE, Industry | ||||||
| Industrials | 25.07 | — | — | — | — | |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).
1 Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
3 2022 Calculation
FCFE per share = FCFE ÷ No. shares of common stock outstanding
= 5,546,000,000 ÷ 2,062,605,434 = 2.69
4 Closing price as at the filing date of CSX Corp. Annual Report.
5 2022 Calculation
P/FCFE = Share price ÷ FCFE per share
= 31.67 ÷ 2.69 = 11.78
6 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The valuation of CSX Corp. between 2018 and 2022 is characterized by significant volatility in the Price to Free Cash Flow to Equity (P/FCFE) ratio, driven by divergent trends between market pricing and cash flow generation.
- Share Price Evolution
- A consistent upward trend is observed from 2018 through 2021, with the share price increasing from US$ 22.70 to a peak of US$ 35.17. This growth phase was followed by a moderate correction in 2022, where the price declined to US$ 31.67.
- FCFE per Share Performance
- Free Cash Flow to Equity per share experienced a notable decline in the first three years of the period, falling from US$ 2.53 in 2018 to a minimum of US$ 1.29 in 2020. However, a strong recovery occurred thereafter, with values rising to US$ 1.56 in 2021 and reaching a period high of US$ 2.69 in 2022.
- P/FCFE Ratio Dynamics
- The P/FCFE ratio exhibited a sharp expansion, rising from 8.96 in 2018 to 22.81 in 2020. This spike was the result of the share price increasing while the FCFE per share simultaneously decreased, suggesting a period where the market valuation became decoupled from immediate cash flow availability. The ratio remained nearly stagnant at 22.62 in 2021 before contracting significantly to 11.78 in 2022. This final reduction was driven by the substantial rebound in cash flow per share, which brought the valuation multiple back toward historical norms.
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