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Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
CSX Corp., dividends per share (DPS) forecast
US$
Year | Value | DPS_{t} or Terminal value (TV_{t}) | Calculation | Present value at |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | DPS_{0}^{1} | |||
1 | DPS_{1} | = × (1 + ) | ||
2 | DPS_{2} | = × (1 + ) | ||
3 | DPS_{3} | = × (1 + ) | ||
4 | DPS_{4} | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | DPS_{5} | = × (1 + ) | ||
5 | Terminal value (TV_{5}) | = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – ) | ||
Intrinsic value of CSX Corp.’s common stock (per share) | ||||
Current share price |
Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-12).
^{1} DPS_{0} = Sum of the last year dividends per share of CSX Corp.’s common stock. See details »
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
Assumptions | ||
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite^{1} | R_{F} | |
Expected rate of return on market portfolio^{2} | E(R_{M}) | |
Systematic risk of CSX Corp.’s common stock | β_{CSX} | |
Required rate of return on CSX Corp.’s common stock^{3} | r_{CSX} |
^{1} Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
^{2} See details »
^{3} r_{CSX} = R_{F} + β_{CSX} [E(R_{M}) – R_{F}]
= + [ – ]
=
Dividend Growth Rate (g)
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
CSX Corp., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-06), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-07), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-14), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-10).
2019 Calculations
^{1} Retention rate = (Net earnings – Common stock dividends) ÷ Net earnings
= ( – ) ÷ =
^{2} Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings ÷ Revenue
= 100 × ÷ =
^{3} Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= ÷ =
^{4} Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX
= ÷ =
^{5} g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × × =
Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model
g = 100 × (P_{0} × r – D_{0}) ÷ (P_{0} + D_{0})
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + ) =
where:
P_{0} = current price of share of CSX Corp.’s common stock
D_{0} = the last year dividends per share of CSX Corp.’s common stock
r = required rate of return on CSX Corp.’s common stock
Dividend growth rate (g) forecast
CSX Corp., H-model
Year | Value | g_{t} |
---|---|---|
1 | g_{1} | |
2 | g_{2} | |
3 | g_{3} | |
4 | g_{4} | |
5 and thereafter | g_{5} |
where:
g_{1} is implied by PRAT model
g_{5} is implied by Gordon growth model
g_{2}, g_{3} and g_{4} are calculated using linear interpoltion between g_{1} and g_{5}
Calculations
g_{2} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =
g_{3} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =
g_{4} = g_{1} + (g_{5} – g_{1}) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =