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# CSX Corp. (CSX)

## Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.

### Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

CSX Corp., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

USD \$ in millions, except per share data

Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFF0
1 FCFF1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFF2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFF3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFF4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFF5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ()
Intrinsic value of CSX Corp.’s capital
Less: Long-term debt, including current maturities (fair value)
Intrinsic value of CSX Corp.’s common stock
Intrinsic value of CSX Corp.’s common stock (per share) \$
Current share price \$

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-06).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

### Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

CSX Corp., cost of capital

Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value)
Long-term debt, including current maturities (fair value) = × (1 – )

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-06).

1 USD \$ in millions

Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= × \$ = \$

Long-term debt, including current maturities (fair value). See Details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See Details »

Required rate of return on debt. See Details »

Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= ( + + + + ) ÷ 5 =

WACC =

### FCFF Growth Rate (g)

#### FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

CSX Corp., PRAT model

Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 30, 2016 Dec 25, 2015 Dec 26, 2014
Selected Financial Data (USD \$ in millions)
Interest expense
Net earnings
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1
Interest expense, after tax2
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends
EBIT(1 – EITR)3
Current maturities of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current portion
Shareholders’ equity, attributable to CSX
Total capital
Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5
Averages
RR
ROIC
Growth rate of FCFF (g)6

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-06), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-07), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-14), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-10), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-11).

2018 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= × (1 – ) =

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net earnings + Interest expense, after tax
= + =

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [] ÷ =

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷ =

6 g = RR × ROIC
= × =

#### FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × ( × ) ÷ ( + ) =

where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of CSX Corp.’s debt and equity (USD \$ in millions)
FCFF0 = last year CSX Corp.’s free cash flow to the firm (USD \$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of CSX Corp.’s capital

#### FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

CSX Corp., H-model

Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =