Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

The financial performance, as measured by economic profit, exhibits significant fluctuations over the five-year period. Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) demonstrates considerable volatility, transitioning from a positive value in 2021 to a substantial loss in 2022, followed by recovery and growth through 2025. Invested capital consistently increased throughout the period, while the cost of capital remained relatively stable. Despite increasing NOPAT, economic profit remained negative throughout the analyzed timeframe, though the magnitude of the loss decreased over time.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT began at US$37,525 million in 2021, experienced a significant decline to a loss of US$5,619 million in 2022, and then recovered to US$31,856 million in 2023. Further growth was observed in 2024, reaching US$58,988 million, and continued into 2025 with a value of US$90,849 million. This indicates a substantial turnaround in core operational profitability.

Cost of Capital

The cost of capital showed minor fluctuations, starting at 20.54% in 2021. It decreased to 19.72% in 2022, then increased to 20.61% in 2023 and 21.05% in 2024, before slightly decreasing to 20.82% in 2025. The relative stability suggests consistent financing conditions over the period.

Invested Capital

Invested capital consistently increased throughout the period, beginning at US$202,836 million in 2021. It rose to US$269,358 million in 2022, US$326,668 million in 2023, US$375,421 million in 2024, and reached US$475,175 million in 2025. This demonstrates a continuous expansion of the company’s asset base.

Economic Profit

Economic profit was negative for all five years. It started at a loss of US$4,141 million in 2021, worsened considerably to a loss of US$58,730 million in 2022, and then improved to a loss of US$35,483 million in 2023. The loss continued to diminish in 2024 to US$20,039 million, and further decreased to US$8,073 million in 2025. While the losses are decreasing, the company is not yet generating returns exceeding its cost of capital.

The increasing NOPAT coupled with a consistent increase in invested capital suggests improving operational efficiency, but the continued negative economic profit indicates that the returns generated are still insufficient to cover the cost of capital. The trend of decreasing economic losses, however, suggests a potential path towards profitability as the company continues to grow.

Net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) exhibited significant fluctuations over the five-year period. While both metrics generally trended upwards, a substantial loss was recorded in 2022 before returning to positive figures and demonstrating accelerating growth in subsequent years.

Overall Trend

Both net income and NOPAT demonstrate a recovery from a loss in 2022, followed by substantial growth through 2025. The period is characterized by volatility, particularly in 2022, but concludes with strong positive performance.

Net Income

Net income reached US$33,364 million in 2021. A significant loss of US$2,722 million was recorded in 2022. Subsequent years saw a return to profitability, with net income increasing to US$30,425 million in 2023, US$59,248 million in 2024, and reaching US$77,670 million in 2025. This represents a considerable upward trajectory following the 2022 downturn.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT followed a similar pattern to net income. It stood at US$37,525 million in 2021, experienced a loss of US$5,619 million in 2022, and then increased to US$31,856 million in 2023. Growth accelerated in 2024 to US$58,988 million, culminating in US$90,849 million in 2025. NOPAT consistently exceeded net income in 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025, suggesting the impact of non-operating items on overall net income.

Relationship between Net Income and NOPAT

The divergence between net income and NOPAT in 2022 indicates that non-operating items significantly contributed to the overall net loss. The increasing gap between NOPAT and net income in later years suggests a growing influence of non-operating activities on reported net income. The consistent positive NOPAT values, even during the net income loss in 2022, highlight the underlying operational profitability of the business.

The substantial growth in both metrics from 2023 to 2025 suggests improved operational efficiency and/or increased revenue generation. The 2022 results warrant further investigation to understand the specific factors contributing to the loss.

The provision for income taxes, net, exhibits significant volatility over the observed period. A positive value of US$4,791 million in 2021 transitioned to a substantial negative value of US$3,217 million in 2022, indicating a tax benefit was recognized. This was followed by positive values in subsequent years, increasing to US$7,120 million in 2023, US$9,265 million in 2024, and reaching US$19,087 million in 2025.

Cash operating taxes demonstrate an overall increasing trend, though with fluctuations. Beginning at US$5,646 million in 2021, the figure rose to US$5,689 million in 2022, remaining relatively stable. A considerable increase is then observed, reaching US$13,583 million in 2023 and US$14,023 million in 2024. A notable decrease occurs in 2025, with cash operating taxes falling to US$7,866 million.

Relationship between Provision for Income Taxes and Cash Operating Taxes

The difference between the provision for income taxes, net, and cash operating taxes suggests timing differences in recognizing income tax expense. In 2022, the negative provision for income taxes contrasts with positive cash operating taxes, indicating deferred tax assets were realized or tax loss carryforwards utilized. The increasing gap between the two metrics from 2023 to 2024 suggests a growing divergence between book and tax accounting, potentially due to increased non-cash expenses or changes in tax regulations. The narrowing of this gap in 2025, driven by the decrease in cash operating taxes, could indicate a reversal of some of these timing differences.

The substantial increase in both the provision for income taxes, net, and cash operating taxes from 2022 to 2023 and 2024 warrants further investigation. This could be attributable to increased profitability, changes in the tax rate, or adjustments to deferred tax liabilities. The decline in cash operating taxes in 2025, despite the continued increase in the provision for income taxes, net, suggests a potential shift in the composition of taxable income or the utilization of tax credits.

Trend Analysis - Cash Operating Taxes

From 2021 to 2024, cash operating taxes increased by approximately 148.8%. The subsequent decrease of approximately 43.8% in 2025 represents a significant shift and requires further scrutiny to determine the underlying causes. This fluctuation could be linked to changes in business operations, tax planning strategies, or external economic factors.

The invested capital of the company demonstrates a consistent upward trend over the five-year period. Simultaneously, changes are observed in the components contributing to this invested capital, namely total reported debt & leases and stockholders’ equity.

Invested Capital Trend

Invested capital increased from US$202,836 million in 2021 to US$475,175 million in 2025. This represents a cumulative increase of 134.1% over the period. The rate of increase appears to be accelerating, with larger absolute increases observed in later years.

Debt & Leases

Total reported debt & leases exhibited an initial increase from US$132,318 million in 2021 to US$154,972 million in 2022. It then decreased slightly to US$154,556 million in 2023, followed by a further decrease to US$147,838 million in 2024. However, a notable increase to US$169,934 million is observed in 2025. While fluctuations occur, the debt level remains relatively stable overall, with the 2025 value being approximately 28.4% higher than the 2021 value.

Stockholders’ Equity

Stockholders’ equity shows a substantial and consistent increase throughout the period. Starting at US$138,245 million in 2021, it rises to US$201,875 million in 2023, then significantly to US$285,970 million in 2024, and culminates at US$411,065 million in 2025. This represents a cumulative increase of approximately 197.8% from 2021 to 2025. The growth in stockholders’ equity is a primary driver of the overall increase in invested capital.

Relationship between Components and Invested Capital

The growth in invested capital is largely attributable to the significant increase in stockholders’ equity. While debt & leases fluctuate, the consistent expansion of equity provides the primary impetus for the overall upward trend in invested capital. The increasing proportion of equity financing within the capital structure is apparent.

The observed trends suggest a strengthening financial position, characterized by increasing investment in the business and a growing reliance on equity funding. Further analysis would be required to determine the efficiency with which this invested capital is being utilized to generate returns.

The economic spread ratio demonstrates a clear improving trend over the five-year period. Initially negative, the ratio moves progressively closer to zero, indicating a reduction in the disparity between the company’s return on invested capital and its weighted average cost of capital.

Economic Spread Ratio

In 2021, the economic spread ratio was -2.04%, suggesting that the company’s return on invested capital was 2.04% lower than its cost of capital. This negative spread widened considerably in 2022 to -21.80%, representing a substantial underperformance relative to the cost of capital.

A significant improvement is observed in 2023, with the ratio increasing to -10.86%. This indicates a narrowing of the gap between returns and costs. The trend continues in 2024, reaching -5.34%, and further improves to -1.70% in 2025.

The progression towards zero suggests the company is becoming more efficient in generating returns from its invested capital, or that the cost of capital is decreasing, or a combination of both. The magnitude of the improvement is particularly notable between 2022 and 2025.

The economic profit consistently remains negative throughout the period, although the absolute value decreases over time. This aligns with the improving economic spread ratio, as a less negative spread contributes to a smaller economic loss.

Economic Profit & Invested Capital Relationship

Economic profit decreased significantly from -4,141 million in 2021 to -58,730 million in 2022, coinciding with the most negative economic spread ratio. Subsequently, economic profit improved to -35,483 million in 2023, -20,039 million in 2024, and -8,073 million in 2025, mirroring the positive trend in the economic spread ratio.

Invested capital increased consistently each year, from 202,836 million in 2021 to 475,175 million in 2025. Despite this substantial increase in capital employed, the improving economic spread ratio suggests that the company is becoming more effective at deploying that capital.

In summary, while the company continues to report an economic loss, the trend in the economic spread ratio indicates a positive shift in its financial performance. The increasing invested capital is accompanied by a diminishing gap between returns and costs, suggesting improved capital allocation and operational efficiency.

The economic profit margin demonstrates a consistent, though moderating, improvement over the five-year period. Initially negative and substantial, the margin moved towards a less negative position year over year.

Economic Profit Margin Trend

In 2021, the economic profit margin stood at -0.88%. This figure deteriorated significantly in 2022, reaching -11.38%, indicating a substantial decrease in economic profit relative to adjusted net sales. A notable improvement occurred in 2023, with the margin increasing to -6.12%. This positive trend continued into 2024, where the margin further improved to -3.12%. The most recent year, 2025, shows the margin reaching -1.13%, representing the smallest negative value over the observed period.

The movement in the economic profit margin closely mirrors the fluctuations in economic profit. The largest decline in the margin corresponds with the largest absolute value of economic profit loss in 2022. Conversely, the improvements in the margin align with the decreasing magnitude of economic profit losses in subsequent years.

Relationship to Adjusted Net Sales

Adjusted net sales exhibited a consistent upward trend throughout the period, increasing from US$472,241 million in 2021 to US$717,297 million in 2025. Despite this growth in sales, the economic profit margin remained negative across all five years, suggesting that the cost of capital consistently exceeded the returns generated from sales. However, the narrowing of the negative margin indicates that the gap between the cost of capital and returns is decreasing as sales increase.

The observed trend suggests a potential shift towards improved capital efficiency or profitability, as the economic profit margin is becoming less negative. Continued monitoring is recommended to determine if this trend will lead to positive economic profit in future periods.