Calculation
| P/OP | = | Share price1, 2, 3 | ÷ | Operating profit per share1 | Operating profit per share1 | = | Operating earnings (loss)1 (in thousands) |
÷ | No. shares of common stock outstanding2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2022 | 6.74 | = | 45.20 | ÷ | 6.70 | 6.70 | = | 2,468,500 | ÷ | 368,309,275 | |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 27.27 | = | 29.70 | ÷ | 1.09 | 1.09 | = | 412,900 | ÷ | 379,093,342 | |
| Feb 20, 2020 | — | = | 18.47 | ÷ | -2.89 | -2.89 | = | -1,094,900 | ÷ | 378,764,442 | |
| Mar 13, 2019 | 11.94 | = | 28.75 | ÷ | 2.41 | 2.41 | = | 928,300 | ÷ | 385,470,499 | |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 22.71 | = | 27.46 | ÷ | 1.21 | 1.21 | = | 465,700 | ÷ | 385,226,223 | |
| Feb 15, 2017 | 37.09 | = | 33.78 | ÷ | 0.91 | 0.91 | = | 319,000 | ÷ | 350,238,549 | |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 6.73 | = | 24.40 | ÷ | 3.63 | 3.63 | = | 1,278,800 | ÷ | 352,516,131 | |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 14.50 | = | 52.01 | ÷ | 3.59 | 3.59 | = | 1,311,800 | ÷ | 365,844,029 | |
| Jul 17, 2013 | 10.46 | = | 54.27 | ÷ | 5.19 | 5.19 | = | 2,209,600 | ÷ | 425,821,044 | |
| Jul 17, 2012 | 9.49 | = | 58.21 | ÷ | 6.14 | 6.14 | = | 2,611,100 | ÷ | 425,480,205 | |
| Jul 19, 2011 | 11.48 | = | 68.49 | ÷ | 5.97 | 5.97 | = | 2,664,200 | ÷ | 446,584,930 | |
| Jul 23, 2010 | 16.41 | = | 46.80 | ÷ | 2.85 | 2.85 | = | 1,270,800 | ÷ | 445,486,732 | |
| Jul 24, 2009 | 9.90 | = | 53.45 | ÷ | 5.40 | 5.40 | = | 2,400,900 | ÷ | 444,543,109 | |
| Jul 29, 2008 | 19.36 | = | 122.36 | ÷ | 6.32 | 6.32 | = | 2,806,700 | ÷ | 443,982,336 | |
| Aug 9, 2007 | 26.86 | = | 37.51 | ÷ | 1.40 | 1.40 | = | 616,300 | ÷ | 441,322,712 | |
| Aug 11, 2006 | 63.49 | = | 15.36 | ÷ | 0.24 | 0.24 | = | 105,800 | ÷ | 437,310,048 | |
| Aug 5, 2005 | 20.98 | = | 17.30 | ÷ | 0.82 | 0.82 | = | 318,500 | ÷ | 386,252,742 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2012-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2011-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2010-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2009-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2008-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2007-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2006-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2005-05-31).
1 US$
2 Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
3 Closing price as at the filing date of Mosaic Co. Annual Report.
The Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) ratio from 2005 to 2022 exhibits significant volatility, primarily driven by fluctuations in operating profitability rather than consistent trends in share price. The ratio demonstrates a recurring pattern where extreme peaks occur during periods of depressed operating earnings, while the lowest valuations align with peaks in operational profitability.
- Impact of Operating Profit Volatility
- Operating profit per share has been highly inconsistent, ranging from a deficit of -2.89 USD in 2020 to a high of 6.70 USD in 2022. This instability creates sharp deviations in the P/OP ratio, as the share price does not always move in direct proportion to operational earnings.
- Valuation Spikes
- The most pronounced increases in the P/OP ratio occurred in 2006 (63.49) and 2017 (37.09). These spikes correlate with sharp contractions in operating profit per share (0.24 USD and 0.91 USD, respectively), indicating periods where the market valuation remained high despite a significant decline in operational performance.
- Profitability-Driven Compression
- Conversely, the lowest P/OP ratios are observed during years of high operational efficiency. In 2016 and 2022, the ratio dropped to 6.73 and 6.74, respectively. The 2022 low is particularly notable as it coincided with the highest recorded operating profit per share of 6.70 USD, suggesting a compression of the multiple as profitability peaked.
- Operational Deficits
- A critical break in the ratio trend is observed in 2020, where negative operating profit per share rendered the P/OP ratio inapplicable. This period marks a transition from a ratio of 11.94 in 2019 to a recovery phase in 2021, where the ratio rose to 27.27 as profitability returned to positive territory.
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Comparison to Competitors
| Mosaic Co. | Linde plc | |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2022 | 6.74 | 29.87 |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 27.27 | 39.58 |
| Feb 20, 2020 | — | 36.01 |
| Mar 13, 2019 | 11.94 | 16.21 |
| Feb 21, 2018 | 22.71 | 17.56 |
| Feb 15, 2017 | 37.09 | 15.33 |
| Feb 19, 2016 | 6.73 | 12.50 |
| Feb 17, 2015 | 14.50 | 14.24 |
| Jul 17, 2013 | 10.46 | 14.25 |
| Jul 17, 2012 | 9.49 | 13.64 |
| Jul 19, 2011 | 11.48 | 13.18 |
| Jul 23, 2010 | 16.41 | 14.13 |
| Jul 24, 2009 | 9.90 | 14.78 |
| Jul 29, 2008 | 19.36 | 9.67 |
| Aug 9, 2007 | 26.86 | 14.77 |
| Aug 11, 2006 | 63.49 | 13.01 |
| Aug 5, 2005 | 20.98 | 13.69 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2012-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2011-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2010-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2009-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2008-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2007-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2006-05-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2005-05-31).