Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 625.25% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $623.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,018.34% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2025
End date: February 6, 2026
a = -3.4586
b = 0.0054
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0054) – 1
= 625.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.09%
December 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4586 + 0.0054 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.1361)
= $462.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4586 + 0.0054 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.0220)
= $412.38
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4586 + 0.0054 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.4998)
= $665.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.4586 + 0.0054 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(6.3857)
= $593.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 625.25% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of February 6, 2026 was $623.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 23, 2025
End date: February 6, 2026
a = -5.6030
b = 0.0066
s = 0.0274
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0066) – 1
= 1,018.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0274) – 1
= 11.60%
December 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6030 + 0.0066 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(6.2198)
= $502.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6030 + 0.0066 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(6.1101)
= $450.37
February 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6030 + 0.0066 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(6.5174)
= $676.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6030 + 0.0066 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0274)
= Exp(6.4077)
= $606.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,018.34% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of February 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out LMT and 1,499 other stocks on our new website