Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 402.69% per annum.
- SWAV price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $330.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.72% per annum.
- SWAV price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWAV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2023
End date: May 3, 2024
a = -2.2204
b = 0.0044
s = 0.0364
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 402.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0364) – 1
= 15.65%
November 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2204 + 0.0044 × 1,648 + 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(5.1433)
= $171.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2204 + 0.0044 × 1,648 – 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(4.9979)
= $148.10
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2204 + 0.0044 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(5.9219)
= $373.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2204 + 0.0044 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0364)
= Exp(5.7765)
= $322.63
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 402.69% per annum.
- SWAV price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $330.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2024
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 4.9425
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0013
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0013) – 1
= 0.52%
April 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9425 + 0.0005 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0013)
= Exp(5.7928)
= $327.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9425 + 0.0005 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0013)
= Exp(5.7876)
= $326.24
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0013)
= Exp(5.8027)
= $331.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9425 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0013)
= Exp(5.7975)
= $329.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.72% per annum.
- SWAV price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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