Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Express Scripts Holding Co. (NASDAQ:ESRX)

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since October 31, 2018.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.


Economic Profit

Express Scripts Holding Co., economic profit calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 3,274,103 3,375,341 2,290,431 1,953,528 1,817,712
Cost of capital2 12.62% 12.56% 12.67% 13.81% 13.64%
Invested capital3 37,007,152 35,712,343 37,411,086 38,622,209 41,289,230
 
Economic profit4 (1,396,943) (1,109,361) (2,450,755) (3,378,892) (3,813,595)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2017 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= 3,274,103 – 12.62% × 37,007,152 = -1,396,943


The analysis of economic profit from 2013 to 2017 reveals a persistent failure to generate value above the cost of capital, although a general trend toward recovery was evident through much of the period.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT exhibited a strong upward trajectory from 2013 to 2016, increasing from 1.82 billion to 3.38 billion. This growth indicates a substantial improvement in operational profitability over the four-year span. A slight contraction was observed in 2017, with NOPAT decreasing to 3.27 billion.
Invested Capital and Cost of Capital
Invested capital showed a consistent decline from 41.29 billion in 2013 to 35.71 billion in 2016, before rising to 37.01 billion in 2017. The cost of capital remained relatively stable during this period, peaking at 13.81% in 2014 and stabilizing around 12.6% by 2017.
Economic Profit Performance
Economic profit remained negative throughout the entire period, signifying that the returns on invested capital were insufficient to cover the company's cost of capital. However, the magnitude of the economic loss narrowed from 3.81 billion in 2013 to 1.11 billion in 2016. This narrowing gap was the result of simultaneous increases in NOPAT and reductions in the invested capital base. In 2017, the trend reversed, with economic profit falling back to negative 1.40 billion, coinciding with the decline in operational profit and the increase in capital investment.

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Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Express Scripts Holding Co., NOPAT calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Net income attributable to Express Scripts 4,517,400 3,404,400 2,476,400 2,007,600 1,844,600
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1 (1,678,900) (497,400) (462,100) (430,500) (573,700)
Increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts2 20,300 (12,300) (77,800) (37,100) 69,700
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents3 (1,658,600) (509,700) (539,900) (467,600) (504,000)
Interest expense and other 607,900 694,800 500,300 582,900 596,100
Interest expense, operating lease liability4 9,028 8,956 8,671 11,144 12,226
Adjusted interest expense and other 616,928 703,756 508,971 594,044 608,326
Tax benefit of interest expense and other5 (215,925) (246,314) (178,140) (207,915) (212,914)
Adjusted interest expense and other, after taxes6 401,003 457,441 330,831 386,128 395,412
(Income) loss from discontinued operations, net of tax7 — — — — 53,600
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest 14,300 23,200 23,100 27,400 28,100
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) 3,274,103 3,375,341 2,290,431 1,953,528 1,817,712

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for doubtful accounts.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income attributable to Express Scripts.

4 2017 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= 236,952 × 3.81% = 9,028

5 2017 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense and other = Adjusted interest expense and other × Statutory income tax rate
= 616,928 × 35.00% = 215,925

6 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income attributable to Express Scripts.

7 Elimination of discontinued operations.


Between 2013 and 2017, there was a general upward trajectory in both net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT), although a notable divergence occurred in the final year of the period.

Net Income Growth Trends
Net income attributable to Express Scripts exhibited consistent and accelerating growth over the five-year period. Starting at 1.84 billion US$ in 2013, the figure rose steadily to 4.52 billion US$ by 2017. The most significant increases occurred between 2015 and 2017, indicating a strong expansion in overall bottom-line profitability.
NOPAT Performance and Volatility
NOPAT followed a positive growth trend from 2013 through 2016, rising from 1.82 billion US$ to a peak of 3.38 billion US$. However, this momentum reversed in 2017, when NOPAT decreased to 3.27 billion US$. This represents a deviation from the growth pattern observed in the previous four years.
Comparative Analysis of Operational vs. Total Profitability
A critical divergence is observed in 2017. While net income continued to climb significantly, NOPAT declined. Because NOPAT focuses specifically on core operational performance by excluding non-operating financial items, this gap suggests that the 2017 increase in net income was driven by non-operating factors rather than improvements in core business operations. The alignment between the two metrics from 2013 to 2016 indicates that operational gains were the primary drivers of profitability during the earlier part of the period.

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Cash Operating Taxes

Express Scripts Holding Co., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Provision for income taxes 397,300 999,500 1,364,300 1,031,200 1,104,000
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit) (1,678,900) (497,400) (462,100) (430,500) (573,700)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense and other 215,925 246,314 178,140 207,915 212,914
Cash operating taxes 2,292,125 1,743,214 2,004,540 1,669,615 1,890,614

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).


The analysis of tax expenditures from 2013 to 2017 reveals a persistent divergence between accounting tax provisions and actual cash operating taxes. While the provision for income taxes showed a general downward trajectory toward the end of the period, cash operating taxes remained volatile and reached their peak in the final year, creating a widening gap between reported tax expenses and actual cash outflows.

Provision for Income Taxes Trend
The provision for income taxes exhibited significant volatility, peaking at 1,364,300 thousand US$ in 2015. Following this peak, a sharp decline occurred, with the provision falling to 999,500 thousand US$ in 2016 and further dropping to a period low of 397,300 thousand US$ in 2017. This represents a substantial reduction in recognized tax expenses on the income statement over the final three years.
Cash Operating Taxes Trend
Cash operating taxes fluctuated throughout the period, beginning at 1,890,614 thousand US$ in 2013 and dipping to 1,669,615 thousand US$ in 2014. A recovery followed in 2015, with values reaching 2,004,540 thousand US$, before another dip in 2016. In 2017, cash operating taxes rose to their highest level in the analyzed period, totaling 2,292,125 thousand US$.
Analysis of Tax Divergence
A consistent pattern is observed where cash operating taxes exceed the provision for income taxes in every year analyzed. This disparity became most acute in 2017, where cash taxes were approximately 5.7 times higher than the tax provision. From an Economic Value Added (EVA) perspective, the reliance on cash operating taxes rather than accounting provisions indicates a higher actual tax burden on cash flow than what is reflected in the net income figures, which would negatively impact the calculation of after-tax operating profit.

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Invested Capital

Express Scripts Holding Co., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in thousands

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Short-term debt and current maturities of long-term debt 1,032,900 722,300 1,646,400 2,555,300 1,584,000
Long-term debt, excluding current maturities 14,981,500 14,846,000 13,946,300 11,012,700 12,363,000
Operating lease liability1 236,952 240,743 266,786 294,809 321,730
Total reported debt & leases 16,251,352 15,809,043 15,859,486 13,862,809 14,268,730
Total Express Scripts stockholders’ equity 18,119,600 16,236,000 17,372,800 20,054,200 21,837,400
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2 2,532,300 3,572,200 4,069,800 4,532,400 4,985,200
Allowance for doubtful accounts3 95,300 75,000 87,300 165,100 202,200
Equity equivalents4 2,627,600 3,647,200 4,157,100 4,697,500 5,187,400
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax5 2,900 12,300 14,000 (2,100) (11,700)
Non-controlling interest 5,700 7,800 7,700 9,800 7,400
Adjusted total Express Scripts stockholders’ equity 20,755,800 19,903,300 21,551,600 24,759,400 27,020,500
Invested capital 37,007,152 35,712,343 37,411,086 38,622,209 41,289,230

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of equity equivalents to total Express Scripts stockholders’ equity.

5 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.


Between 2013 and 2017, invested capital exhibited a general downward trajectory for the first four years before experiencing a moderate recovery in the final period. The total invested capital peaked at 41,289,230 thousand US dollars in 2013 and reached its lowest point of 35,712,343 thousand US dollars in 2016, representing a cumulative contraction of approximately 13.4% over that interval. A reversal of this trend occurred in 2017, with invested capital increasing to 37,007,152 thousand US dollars.

Invested Capital Dynamics
The fluctuation in invested capital is characterized by a consistent year-over-year decline from 2013 through 2016. This suggests a period of capital reduction or optimization. The subsequent increase in 2017 indicates a shift toward renewed capital investment or a change in the financing structure.
Stockholders' Equity Analysis
Stockholders' equity served as the primary driver for the reduction in invested capital between 2013 and 2016. Equity declined steadily from 21,837,400 thousand US dollars to 16,236,000 thousand US dollars. This significant reduction in the equity base suggests potential activities such as aggressive share repurchases or dividend distributions that exceeded retained earnings. A recovery was noted in 2017, where equity rose to 18,119,600 thousand US dollars.
Debt and Lease Obligations
In contrast to the equity trend, total reported debt and leases remained relatively stable with a gradual upward bias. After a slight dip in 2014 to 13,862,809 thousand US dollars, debt increased steadily to 16,251,352 thousand US dollars by 2017. The growth in debt obligations during the periods when equity was declining suggests a shift in the capital structure toward a higher proportion of debt financing to sustain operations or fund capital requirements.
Capital Structure Correlation
The divergence between declining equity and rising debt from 2014 to 2017 indicates a strategic shift in how the company's assets were financed. While the total invested capital decreased until 2016, the increasing reliance on debt implies an increase in financial leverage during the mid-period of the analysis.

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Cost of Capital

Express Scripts Holding Co., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 44,380,248 44,380,248 ÷ 60,978,400 = 0.73 0.73 × 16.42% = 11.95%
Debt3 16,361,200 16,361,200 ÷ 60,978,400 = 0.27 0.27 × 3.81% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.66%
Operating lease liability4 236,952 236,952 ÷ 60,978,400 = 0.00 0.00 × 3.81% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 60,978,400 1.00 12.62%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 42,176,284 42,176,284 ÷ 58,225,826 = 0.72 0.72 × 16.42% = 11.89%
Debt3 15,808,800 15,808,800 ÷ 58,225,826 = 0.27 0.27 × 3.72% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.66%
Operating lease liability4 240,743 240,743 ÷ 58,225,826 = 0.00 0.00 × 3.72% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 58,225,826 1.00 12.56%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 45,861,358 45,861,358 ÷ 62,116,744 = 0.74 0.74 × 16.42% = 12.12%
Debt3 15,988,600 15,988,600 ÷ 62,116,744 = 0.26 0.26 × 3.25% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.54%
Operating lease liability4 266,786 266,786 ÷ 62,116,744 = 0.00 0.00 × 3.25% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 62,116,744 1.00 12.67%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 63,036,595 63,036,595 ÷ 77,531,603 = 0.81 0.81 × 16.42% = 13.35%
Debt3 14,200,200 14,200,200 ÷ 77,531,603 = 0.18 0.18 × 3.78% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.45%
Operating lease liability4 294,809 294,809 ÷ 77,531,603 = 0.00 0.00 × 3.78% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 77,531,603 1.00 13.81%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 59,847,588 59,847,588 ÷ 74,732,117 = 0.80 0.80 × 16.42% = 13.15%
Debt3 14,562,800 14,562,800 ÷ 74,732,117 = 0.19 0.19 × 3.80% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.48%
Operating lease liability4 321,730 321,730 ÷ 74,732,117 = 0.00 0.00 × 3.80% × (1 – 35.00%) = 0.01%
Total: 74,732,117 1.00 13.64%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Express Scripts Holding Co., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1 (1,396,943) (1,109,361) (2,450,755) (3,378,892) (3,813,595)
Invested capital2 37,007,152 35,712,343 37,411,086 38,622,209 41,289,230
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3 -3.77% -3.11% -6.55% -8.75% -9.24%
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Abbott Laboratories — — — — —
Elevance Health Inc. — — — — —
Intuitive Surgical Inc. — — — — —
Medtronic PLC — — — — —
UnitedHealth Group Inc. — — — — —

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2017 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × -1,396,943 ÷ 37,007,152 = -3.77%

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


An analysis of economic value added metrics from 2013 to 2017 indicates a general trend of improving capital efficiency through 2016, followed by a moderate reversal in 2017. Throughout the period, the organization consistently reported negative economic profit, signifying that the returns generated were insufficient to cover the cost of the invested capital.

Economic Profit Trajectory
Economic profit showed a consistent recovery from 2013 to 2016, moving from -3,813,595 thousand US$ to -1,109,361 thousand US$. This trend reflects a significant reduction in the annual value deficit. However, this improvement was interrupted in 2017, when economic profit widened to -1,396,943 thousand US$, representing a downturn in value creation.
Invested Capital Trends
Invested capital experienced a steady decline from 2013 to 2016, falling from 41,289,230 thousand US$ to 35,712,343 thousand US$. This contraction in the capital base occurred alongside the improvement in economic profit. In 2017, invested capital increased to 37,007,152 thousand US$, correlating with the observed decline in the economic spread ratio for that year.
Economic Spread Ratio Analysis
The economic spread ratio improved from -9.24% in 2013 to -3.11% in 2016, indicating that the gap between the return on invested capital and the cost of capital was narrowing. This suggests a period of enhanced operational efficiency. The ratio then declined to -3.77% in 2017, confirming a slight erosion of the efficiency gains achieved in the prior three years.

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Economic Profit Margin

Express Scripts Holding Co., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Economic profit1 (1,396,943) (1,109,361) (2,450,755) (3,378,892) (3,813,595)
Revenues 100,064,600 100,287,500 101,751,800 100,887,100 104,098,800
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2 -1.40% -1.11% -2.41% -3.35% -3.66%
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Abbott Laboratories — — — — —
Elevance Health Inc. — — — — —
Intuitive Surgical Inc. — — — — —
Medtronic PLC — — — — —
UnitedHealth Group Inc. — — — — —

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2014-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2013-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2017 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenues
= 100 × -1,396,943 ÷ 100,064,600 = -1.40%

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Between 2013 and 2017, the company consistently reported negative economic profit, indicating that the returns generated were insufficient to cover the total cost of capital. Despite the persistent deficit, a general trend of recovery was observed during the first four years of the period, although this progress experienced a reversal in the final year.

Economic Profit Trajectory
A steady reduction in economic losses occurred from 2013 to 2016, with the deficit narrowing from 3,813,595 thousand US$ to 1,109,361 thousand US$. This period represented a significant improvement in the company's ability to approach its cost of capital. However, this positive momentum shifted in 2017, as economic losses widened again to 1,396,943 thousand US$.
Economic Profit Margin Analysis
The economic profit margin mirrored the absolute loss trend, improving from -3.66% in 2013 to a peak efficiency of -1.11% in 2016. The subsequent decline to -1.40% in 2017 confirms a slight erosion of economic value creation efficiency toward the end of the analyzed period.
Revenue Stability and Impact
Revenues remained remarkably stable, fluctuating within a narrow range between approximately 100 billion and 104 billion US$. Because revenue growth was virtually flat, the improvements in economic profit observed between 2013 and 2016 cannot be attributed to top-line expansion, suggesting that the gains were driven by internal operational efficiencies or changes in the capital structure.

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