Stock Analysis on Net

Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Broadcom Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 13.53%
01 FCFF0 19,035
1 FCFF1 19,339 = 19,035 × (1 + 1.59%) 17,034
2 FCFF2 20,059 = 19,339 × (1 + 3.73%) 15,564
3 FCFF3 21,234 = 20,059 × (1 + 5.86%) 14,512
4 FCFF4 22,930 = 21,234 × (1 + 7.99%) 13,805
5 FCFF5 25,251 = 22,930 × (1 + 10.12%) 13,391
5 Terminal value (TV5) 816,645 = 25,251 × (1 + 10.12%) ÷ (13.53%10.12%) 433,064
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. capital 507,370
Less: 8.00% Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A, $0.001 par value (fair value) 0
Less: Debt (fair value) 33,181
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. common stock 474,189
 
Intrinsic value of Broadcom Inc. common stock (per share) $1,023.24
Current share price $1,256.82

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-29).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Broadcom Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 582,437 0.95 14.09%
8.00% Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, Series A, $0.001 par value (fair value) 0 0.00 0.00%
Debt (fair value) 33,181 0.05 3.58% = 4.11% × (1 – 12.93%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-29).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 463,421,237 × $1,256.82
= $582,437,079,086.34

   Debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (6.70% + 7.50% + 0.40% + 21.00% + 21.00% + 21.00%) ÷ 6
= 12.93%

WACC = 13.53%


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Broadcom Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Oct 29, 2023 Oct 30, 2022 Oct 31, 2021 Nov 1, 2020 Nov 3, 2019 Nov 4, 2018
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 1,622 1,737 1,885 1,777 1,444 628
Loss from discontinued operations, net of income taxes (1) (12) (19)
Net income attributable to Broadcom Inc. stockholders 14,082 11,495 6,736 2,960 2,724 12,259
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 6.70% 7.50% 0.40% 21.00% 21.00% 21.00%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 1,513 1,607 1,877 1,404 1,141 496
Add: Dividends to preferred stockholders 272 299 297 29
Add: Dividends to common stockholders 7,645 6,733 5,913 5,235 4,235 2,921
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 9,158 8,612 8,089 6,936 5,405 3,417
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 15,595 13,102 8,613 4,365 3,877 12,774
 
Current portion of long-term debt 1,608 440 290 827 2,787
Long-term debt, excluding current portion 37,621 39,075 39,440 40,235 30,011 17,493
Stockholders’ equity 23,988 22,709 24,962 23,874 24,941 26,657
Total capital 63,217 62,224 64,692 64,936 57,739 44,150
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 0.41 0.34 0.06 -0.59 -0.39 0.73
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 24.67% 21.06% 13.31% 6.72% 6.71% 28.93%
Averages
RR 0.09
ROIC 16.90%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 1.59%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-10-29), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-10-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-10-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-11-01), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-11-03), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-11-04).

1 See details »

2023 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 1,622 × (1 – 6.70%)
= 1,513

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income attributable to Broadcom Inc. stockholders – Loss from discontinued operations, net of income taxes + Interest expense, after tax
= 14,0820 + 1,513
= 15,595

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [15,5959,158] ÷ 15,595
= 0.41

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 15,595 ÷ 63,217
= 24.67%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.09 × 16.90%
= 1.59%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (615,618 × 13.53%19,035) ÷ (615,618 + 19,035)
= 10.12%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Broadcom Inc. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Broadcom Inc. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Broadcom Inc. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Broadcom Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 1.59%
2 g2 3.73%
3 g3 5.86%
4 g4 7.99%
5 and thereafter g5 10.12%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.59% + (10.12%1.59%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 3.73%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.59% + (10.12%1.59%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.86%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 1.59% + (10.12%1.59%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 7.99%