Stock Analysis on Net

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO)

$22.49

This company has been moved to the archive! The financial data has not been updated since October 30, 2024.

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT exhibits significant fluctuations over the analyzed period. Starting at 4,429 million USD in 2019, it declined sharply to a negative 1,650 million USD in 2020, indicating a substantial operational setback. In 2021, the metric rebounded to 5,561 million USD and further increased notably to 13,520 million USD in 2022. However, in 2023, NOPAT declined again to 7,868 million USD, which, while lower than the previous year, remains substantially above the 2019 level.
Cost of Capital
The cost of capital shows moderate variation throughout the period. It started at 15.47% in 2019 and decreased to 14.13% in 2020. Subsequently, it increased to 14.91% in 2021 and peaked at 17.04% in 2022. In 2023, the cost of capital slightly declined to 16.87%, remaining relatively high compared to earlier years.
Invested Capital
Invested capital has demonstrated a steady upward trend. Beginning at 40,757 million USD in 2019, it increased marginally to 40,966 million USD in 2020. The growth accelerated in subsequent years, rising to 44,526 million USD in 2021, 49,772 million USD in 2022, and reaching 51,119 million USD in 2023. This consistent increase suggests ongoing investments or capital expansion initiatives.
Economic Profit
The economic profit reflects considerable volatility and is closely linked to changes in NOPAT and cost of capital. It was negative at -1,877 million USD in 2019, followed by a deeper negative value of -7,440 million USD in 2020, indicating a value destruction during this period. The figure improved significantly to -1,076 million USD in 2021 and turned positive to 5,037 million USD in 2022, aligning with the peak in NOPAT that year. In 2023, economic profit reverted to a negative figure of -757 million USD, suggesting a decline in value creation despite the elevated invested capital.

Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Valero Energy Corp., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses2
Increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve3
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents4
Interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Interest expense, operating lease liability5
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest6
Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest, after taxes7
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowance for credit losses.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in LIFO reserve. See details »

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.

5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest = Adjusted interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss) attributable to Valero Energy Corporation stockholders.


Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Stockholders
The net income experienced a significant decline in the year ending 2020, moving from a positive 2,422 million US dollars in 2019 to a negative 1,421 million US dollars. This was followed by a recovery period, with net income rising to 930 million US dollars in 2021. The company then showed strong profitability in 2022, reaching 11,528 million US dollars, before seeing a decrease to 8,835 million US dollars in 2023. Overall, this pattern indicates volatility with a substantial rebound post-2020.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
The NOPAT data mirrors the trends seen in net income, starting at 4,429 million US dollars in 2019 and dropping to negative 1,650 million US dollars in 2020. There was a pronounced recovery in 2021, with NOPAT increasing to 5,561 million US dollars. The highest value in the series occurred in 2022, with 13,520 million US dollars, followed by a reduction to 7,868 million US dollars in 2023. This fluctuation highlights a similar pattern of operational profitability impact and recovery as observed in net income.

Cash Operating Taxes

Valero Energy Corp., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Income tax expense (benefit)
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest and debt expense, net of capitalized interest
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).


The analysis of the annual financial data reveals significant fluctuations in the income tax expense (benefit) and cash operating taxes over the five-year period.

Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
The income tax expense exhibited a notable negative value in 2020, reaching a benefit of -$903 million, which contrasts sharply with the positive expense of $702 million in 2019. Following this period, the tax expense rose to $255 million in 2021, before surging substantially to $3,428 million in 2022. In 2023, this figure decreased somewhat but remained elevated at $2,619 million, indicating a return to significant tax liabilities compared to the earlier years.
Cash Operating Taxes
Cash operating taxes mirrored the trend seen in the income tax expense, with a negative outflow of -$931 million in 2020 compared to $577 million in 2019. Subsequently, there was a marked increase to $519 million in 2021, which escalated dramatically to $3,508 million in 2022. In the most recent year, 2023, cash operating taxes declined slightly to $2,654 million, but still remained considerably higher than pre-2020 levels.

Overall, the data indicates a period of tax benefit in 2020 followed by a consistent and substantial increase in tax expenses and cash operating taxes in the subsequent years. The sharp rise in both metrics during 2022 and 2023 suggests changes in earnings, tax policies, or other factors impacting the company's tax payable status, resulting in a significantly higher cash outflow related to taxes despite the decrease from the 2022 peak.


Invested Capital

Valero Energy Corp., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Current portion of debt and finance lease obligations
Debt and finance lease obligations, less current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowance for credit losses3
LIFO reserve4
Equity equivalents5
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax6
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Construction in progress7
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of LIFO reserve. See details »

5 Addition of equity equivalents to total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity.

6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

7 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases exhibited a rising trend from 2019 to 2020, increasing from $10,962 million to $15,847 million. Subsequently, there was a consistent decline over the next three years, with figures decreasing to $15,125 million in 2021, then dropping more significantly to $12,722 million in 2022, and further to $12,637 million by the end of 2023. This indicates a period of increased leverage followed by a notable reduction in debt levels.
Total Valero Energy Corporation stockholders’ equity
Stockholders' equity showed a downward trajectory between 2019 and 2021, falling from $21,803 million to $18,430 million. However, a reversal occurred in 2022 when equity increased sharply to $23,561 million and continued to grow substantially to $26,346 million in 2023. This pattern suggests an initial period of equity erosion followed by a recovery and strengthening of the equity base.
Invested capital
Invested capital demonstrated a mostly steady upward movement over the five-year span. Starting at $40,757 million in 2019, it slightly increased in 2020 to $40,966 million, then advanced more markedly to $44,526 million in 2021. The growth trend continued with an increase to $49,772 million in 2022, reaching $51,119 million in 2023. This represents ongoing investment and capital deployment over the period.
Summary
Overall, the financial data reflect a phase of increased debt leverage in 2020, followed by deliberate deleveraging from 2021 onward. Concurrently, stockholders’ equity declined in the early years but rebounded strongly in the latest two years, indicating improved financial health or retained earnings accumulation. The continuous growth in invested capital suggests sustained investment efforts, aligning with the strengthening equity position and reduced reliance on debt financing during the latter years.

Cost of Capital

Valero Energy Corp., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt and finance lease obligations, including current portion. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Valero Energy Corp., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrated significant volatility over the examined period. Starting at a negative value of US$ -1,877 million in 2019, it worsened substantially in 2020 to US$ -7,440 million. This was followed by an improvement in 2021 to a negative US$ -1,076 million. Notably, it transitioned into positive territory in 2022 with US$ 5,037 million, before declining again to a negative US$ -757 million in 2023. This pattern indicates fluctuating profitability, with an inability to sustain positive economic profit beyond a single year.
Invested Capital
Invested capital showed a consistent upward trend throughout the period. It increased steadily from US$ 40,757 million in 2019 to US$ 51,119 million in 2023. This represents an overall increase of approximately 25.5%, indicating ongoing capital investment or asset accumulation by the company despite fluctuations in economic profit.
Economic Spread Ratio
The economic spread ratio mirrored the volatility seen in economic profit. It started at -4.61% in 2019 and deteriorated markedly to -18.16% in 2020. Improvement occurred in 2021, where the ratio moved closer to zero at -2.42%. A notable positive spike to 10.12% was observed in 2022, highlighting a period of favorable returns over invested capital. However, this gain was not sustained, as the ratio decreased again to -1.48% in 2023. These trends suggest variability in the company’s ability to generate returns above its cost of capital.

Economic Profit Margin

Valero Energy Corp., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Chevron Corp.
ConocoPhillips
Exxon Mobil Corp.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Revenues, includes excise taxes on sales by certain of foreign operations
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The analysis of the annual financial data reveals several notable fluctuations and patterns in key financial metrics over the examined period.

Economic Profit
The economic profit demonstrates high volatility throughout the years. It declined sharply from -1,877 million USD in 2019 to -7,440 million USD in 2020, indicating substantial losses during that period. The value improved notably in 2021, reaching -1,076 million USD, and turned positive in 2022 with 5,037 million USD, suggesting a period of profitability. However, this improvement was not sustained, as economic profit reverted back to a negative figure of -757 million USD in 2023, reflecting a downturn in economic value generation.
Revenues (Including Excise Taxes on Foreign Sales)
Revenues fluctuated significantly, beginning at 108,324 million USD in 2019 before plummeting to 64,912 million USD in 2020, likely impacted by external economic factors. Subsequently, revenues rebounded strongly to 113,977 million USD in 2021 and continued to grow substantially, peaking at 176,383 million USD in 2022. In 2023, revenues declined to 144,766 million USD, indicating some easing after the peak but remaining well above the 2019 and 2020 levels.
Economic Profit Margin
The economic profit margin shows a pattern correlating with economic profit changes. It was negative throughout most years, with the steepest negative margin of -11.46% recorded in 2020. The margin improved in 2021 to -0.94% and turned positive at 2.86% in 2022, consistent with the year of positive economic profit. Yet, in 2023, the margin decreased again to -0.52%, indicating a contraction in profitability relative to revenues.

Overall, the data suggest a business environment characterized by significant instability in profitability, with 2022 representing a peak in economic performance. Revenue trends show considerable recovery and growth post-2020 but were followed by a partial decline in the most recent year. The economic profit and margin metrics highlight challenges in maintaining consistent value creation despite fluctuating revenue levels.