Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 191.93% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of November 6, 2024 was $1,328.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $136.75 (11.48%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,134.32% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of November 6, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $46.10 (3.60%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 1.6038
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0598
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 191.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0598) – 1
= 27.01%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6038 + 0.0029 × 1,531 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.2170)
= $501.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,052)
= Exp(a + b × X1,052 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6038 + 0.0029 × 1,531 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(5.9780)
= $394.65
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6038 + 0.0029 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(7.0771)
= $1,184.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6038 + 0.0029 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0598)
= Exp(6.8380)
= $932.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 191.93% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of November 6, 2024 was $1,328.20 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $136.75 (11.48%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024
a = -5.4764
b = 0.0069
s = 0.0301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0069) – 1
= 1,134.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0301) – 1
= 12.80%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4764 + 0.0069 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.7225)
= $830.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4764 + 0.0069 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(6.6020)
= $736.60
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4764 + 0.0069 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(7.1494)
= $1,273.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4764 + 0.0069 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0301)
= Exp(7.0289)
= $1,128.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,134.32% per annum.
- TPL price at the close of November 6, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $46.10 (3.60%).