Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 358.49% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $179.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.52 (1.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.23% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 3.2660
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0123
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 358.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0123) – 1
= 5.06%
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2660 + 0.0042 × 430 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(5.0846)
= $161.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2660 + 0.0042 × 430 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(5.0353)
= $153.74
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2660 + 0.0042 × 469 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(5.2473)
= $190.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2660 + 0.0042 × 469 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(5.1980)
= $180.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 358.49% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $179.67 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.52 (1.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 13, 2026
End date: November 2, 2026
a = 4.0629
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0136
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 144.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0136) – 1
= 5.57%
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0629 + 0.0024 × 452 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.1958)
= $180.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0629 + 0.0024 × 452 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.1416)
= $170.99
November 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0629 + 0.0024 × 472 + 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.2447)
= $189.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y325)
= Exp(a + b × X325 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0629 + 0.0024 × 472 – 2 × 0.0136)
= Exp(5.1905)
= $179.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 144.23% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.