Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.09% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $323.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.66% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HUM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2023
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 11.3009
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0446
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -67.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0446) – 1
= 19.54%
October 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3009 + -0.0030 × 1,642 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(6.3904)
= $596.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3009 + -0.0030 × 1,642 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(6.2119)
= $498.66
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3009 + -0.0030 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.8302)
= $340.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3009 + -0.0030 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0446)
= Exp(5.6517)
= $284.76
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.09% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 17, 2024 was $323.46 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2024
End date: April 17, 2024
a = 1.1142
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0116
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 153.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0116) – 1
= 4.75%
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1142 + 0.0026 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.7558)
= $316.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1142 + 0.0026 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.7094)
= $301.70
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1142 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.7941)
= $328.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1142 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.7477)
= $313.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 153.66% per annum.
- HUM price at the close of April 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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