Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 329.46% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $69.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.21 (25.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.18% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 24, 2025
End date: March 4, 2026
a = 2.8084
b = 0.0040
s = 0.0580
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0040) – 1
= 329.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.10%
September 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y132)
= Exp(a + b × X132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8084 + 0.0040 × 191 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(3.6869)
= $39.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y132)
= Exp(a + b × X132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8084 + 0.0040 × 191 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(3.4551)
= $31.66
March 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8084 + 0.0040 × 352 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(4.3298)
= $75.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8084 + 0.0040 × 352 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(4.0979)
= $60.21
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 329.46% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $69.21 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.21 (25.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 5, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 3.8899
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0679
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0679) – 1
= 31.22%
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8899 + 0.0006 × 294 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.2131)
= $67.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y202)
= Exp(a + b × X202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8899 + 0.0006 × 294 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(3.9414)
= $51.49
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8899 + 0.0006 × 462 + 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.3201)
= $75.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8899 + 0.0006 × 462 – 2 × 0.0679)
= Exp(4.0484)
= $57.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.18% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.