Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.42% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $62.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.34% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 5.1188
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.06%
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1188 + -0.0023 × 339 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.4132)
= $82.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1188 + -0.0023 × 339 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.2817)
= $72.36
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1188 + -0.0023 × 414 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.2425)
= $69.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1188 + -0.0023 × 414 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.1110)
= $61.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 56.42% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of November 4, 2026 was $62.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 9, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 6.7787
b = -0.0064
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0064) – 1
= -90.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.11%
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7787 + -0.0064 × 388 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.3329)
= $76.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7787 + -0.0064 × 388 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.2549)
= $70.45
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7787 + -0.0064 × 414 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.1664)
= $64.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7787 + -0.0064 × 414 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.0884)
= $59.65
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.34% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of November 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.