Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.35% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of July 9, 2026 was $60.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.81% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of July 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2026
End date: July 8, 2026
a = 7.6161
b = -0.0074
s = 0.0256
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0074) – 1
= -93.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0256) – 1
= 10.80%
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6161 + -0.0074 × 452 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.3101)
= $74.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6161 + -0.0074 × 452 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.2075)
= $67.19
July 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6161 + -0.0074 × 478 + 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.1170)
= $61.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 478 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.6161 + -0.0074 × 478 – 2 × 0.0256)
= Exp(4.0144)
= $55.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 93.35% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of July 9, 2026 was $60.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: July 9, 2026
a = 5.8926
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -74.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.45%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8926 + -0.0038 × 464 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1757)
= $65.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8926 + -0.0038 × 464 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1038)
= $60.57
July 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8926 + -0.0038 × 479 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1190)
= $61.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y329)
= Exp(a + b × X329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 479 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8926 + -0.0038 × 479 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.0471)
= $57.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.81% per annum.
- FCX price at the close of July 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.