Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

DuPont de Nemours Inc. (DD)


Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

DuPont de Nemours Inc., dividends per share (DPS) forecast

USD $

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Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 16.16%
0 DPS01 4.56
1 DPS1 4.66 = 4.56 × (1 + 2.26%) 4.01
2 DPS2 4.84 = 4.66 × (1 + 3.86%) 3.59
3 DPS3 5.11 = 4.84 × (1 + 5.46%) 3.26
4 DPS4 5.47 = 5.11 × (1 + 7.06%) 3.00
5 DPS5 5.94 = 5.47 × (1 + 8.66%) 2.81
5 Terminal value (TV5) 86.16 = 5.94 × (1 + 8.66%) ÷ (16.16%8.66%) 40.75
Intrinsic value of DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock (per share) $57.42
Current share price $66.12

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-11).

1 DPS0 = Sum of last year dividends per share of DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.91%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.86%
Systematic risk (β) of DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock βDD 1.43
Required rate of return on DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock3 rDD 16.16%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

Calculations

2 See Details »

3 rDD = RF + βDD [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.91% + 1.43 [11.86%1.91%]
= 16.16%


Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

DuPont de Nemours Inc., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Selected Financial Data (USD $ in millions)
Dividends declared on common stock 3,491  2,558  2,037  1,942  1,777 
Preferred stock dividends —  —  340  340  340 
Net income attributable to DuPont 3,844  1,460  4,318  7,685  3,772 
Net sales 85,977  62,484  48,158  48,778  58,167 
Total assets 188,030  192,164  79,511  68,026  68,796 
Total DuPont’s stockholders’ equity 94,571  100,330  25,987  25,374  22,423 
Ratios
Retention rate1 0.09 -0.75 0.49 0.74 0.48
Profit margin2 4.47% 2.34% 8.26% 15.06% 5.90%
Asset turnover3 0.46 0.33 0.61 0.72 0.85
Financial leverage4 1.99 1.92 3.06 2.68 3.07
Averages
Retention rate 0.21
Profit margin 7.21%
Asset turnover 0.59
Financial leverage 2.54
Dividend growth rate (g)5 2.26%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-11), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-15), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-09), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-13).

2018 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to DuPont – Dividends declared on common stock – Preferred stock dividends) ÷ (Net income attributable to DuPont – Preferred stock dividends)
= (3,8443,4910) ÷ (3,8440) = 0.09

2 Profit margin = 100 × (Net income attributable to DuPont – Preferred stock dividends) ÷ Net sales
= 100 × (3,8440) ÷ 85,977 = 4.47%

3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= 85,977 ÷ 188,030 = 0.46

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total DuPont’s stockholders’ equity
= 188,030 ÷ 94,571 = 1.99

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.21 × 7.21% × 0.59 × 2.54 = 2.26%


Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × ($66.12 × 16.16% – $4.56) ÷ ($66.12 + $4.56) = 8.66%

where:
P0 = current price of share of DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock
D0 = last year dividends per share of DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock
r = required rate of return on DuPont de Nemours Inc.’s common stock


Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

DuPont de Nemours Inc., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 2.26%
2 g2 3.86%
3 g3 5.46%
4 g4 7.06%
5 and thereafter g5 8.66%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 2.26% + (8.66%2.26%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 3.86%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 2.26% + (8.66%2.26%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 5.46%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 2.26% + (8.66%2.26%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 7.06%