Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net
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Zoetis Inc. (NYSE:ZTS)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Intermediate level

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Zoetis Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 10.39%
01 FCFE0 1,326 
1 FCFE1 1,857  = 1,326 × (1 + 40.02%) 1,682 
2 FCFE2 2,453  = 1,857 × (1 + 32.14%) 2,013 
3 FCFE3 3,048  = 2,453 × (1 + 24.25%) 2,266 
4 FCFE4 3,547  = 3,048 × (1 + 16.36%) 2,389 
5 FCFE5 3,848  = 3,547 × (1 + 8.48%) 2,348 
5 Terminal value (TV5) 218,798  = 3,848 × (1 + 8.48%) ÷ (10.39%8.48%) 133,497 
Intrinsic value of Zoetis Inc.’s common stock 144,195 
 
Intrinsic value of Zoetis Inc.’s common stock (per share) $303.48
Current share price $158.69

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-13).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.36%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 12.59%
Systematic risk of Zoetis Inc.’s common stock βZTS 0.80
 
Required rate of return on Zoetis Inc.’s common stock3 rZTS 10.39%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rZTS = RF + βZTS [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.36% + 0.80 [12.59%1.36%]
= 10.39%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Zoetis Inc., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Dividends declared 330  261  216  193  172 
Net income attributable to Zoetis 1,500  1,428  864  821  339 
Revenue 6,260  5,825  5,307  4,888  4,765 
Total assets 11,545  10,777  8,586  7,649  7,913 
Total Zoetis Inc. equity 2,708  2,185  1,770  1,487  1,068 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.78 0.82 0.75 0.76 0.49
Profit margin2 23.96% 24.52% 16.28% 16.80% 7.11%
Asset turnover3 0.54 0.54 0.62 0.64 0.60
Financial leverage4 4.26 4.93 4.85 5.14 7.41
Averages
Retention rate 0.72
Profit margin 17.73%
Asset turnover 0.59
Financial leverage 5.32
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 40.02%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-13), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-14), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-15), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-16), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-24).

2019 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net income attributable to Zoetis – Dividends declared) ÷ Net income attributable to Zoetis
= (1,500330) ÷ 1,500 = 0.78

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Zoetis ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 1,500 ÷ 6,260 = 23.96%

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 6,260 ÷ 11,545 = 0.54

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Zoetis Inc. equity
= 11,545 ÷ 2,708 = 4.26

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.72 × 17.73% × 0.59 × 5.32 = 40.02%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (75,401 × 10.39%1,326) ÷ (75,401 + 1,326) = 8.48%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Zoetis Inc.’s common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Zoetis Inc.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Zoetis Inc.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Zoetis Inc., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 40.02%
2 g2 32.14%
3 g3 24.25%
4 g4 16.36%
5 and thereafter g5 8.48%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 40.02% + (8.48%40.02%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 32.14%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 40.02% + (8.48%40.02%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 24.25%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 40.02% + (8.48%40.02%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 16.36%