Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.20% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $546.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.17% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.93 (2.23%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 31, 2025
End date: July 2, 2026
a = 5.7939
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0316
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0316) – 1
= 13.47%
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7939 + 0.0012 × 179 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.0662)
= $431.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7939 + 0.0012 × 179 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(5.9399)
= $379.89
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7939 + 0.0012 × 423 + 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.3514)
= $573.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7939 + 0.0012 × 423 – 2 × 0.0316)
= Exp(6.2250)
= $505.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.20% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was $546.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2026
End date: July 2, 2026
a = 6.0460
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0162
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0162) – 1
= 6.70%
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0460 + 0.0005 × 284 + 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(6.2149)
= $500.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0460 + 0.0005 × 284 – 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(6.1500)
= $468.73
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0460 + 0.0005 × 423 + 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(6.2817)
= $534.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0460 + 0.0005 × 423 – 2 × 0.0162)
= Exp(6.2168)
= $501.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.17% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of July 2, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $11.93 (2.23%).