Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.40% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $498.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.09 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.88% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 6.6414
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0213
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0213) – 1
= 8.90%
June 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y213)
= Exp(a + b × X213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6414 + -0.0012 × 309 + 2 × 0.0213)
= Exp(6.3142)
= $552.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y213)
= Exp(a + b × X213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6414 + -0.0012 × 309 – 2 × 0.0213)
= Exp(6.2289)
= $507.22
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6414 + -0.0012 × 423 + 2 × 0.0213)
= Exp(6.1778)
= $481.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6414 + -0.0012 × 423 – 2 × 0.0213)
= Exp(6.0925)
= $442.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.40% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $498.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.09 (5.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 5.0635
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0067
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 158.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0067) – 1
= 2.74%
September 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0635 + 0.0026 × 408 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.1402)
= $464.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0635 + 0.0026 × 408 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.1132)
= $451.80
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0635 + 0.0026 × 438 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.2184)
= $501.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0635 + 0.0026 × 438 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.1914)
= $488.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.88% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.