Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.09% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $479.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.23 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 133.59% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2026
End date: October 1, 2026
a = 6.6696
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%
June 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y216)
= Exp(a + b × X216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6696 + -0.0013 × 312 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.3145)
= $552.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y216)
= Exp(a + b × X216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6696 + -0.0013 × 312 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.2323)
= $508.95
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6696 + -0.0013 × 423 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.1735)
= $479.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6696 + -0.0013 × 423 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.0914)
= $442.03
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.09% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 2, 2026 was $479.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.23 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 16, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 5.1801
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0069
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 133.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0069) – 1
= 2.81%
September 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0023 × 408 + 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(6.1423)
= $465.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0023 × 408 – 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(6.1146)
= $452.40
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0023 × 424 + 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(6.1795)
= $482.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1801 + 0.0023 × 424 – 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(6.1518)
= $469.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 133.59% per annum.
- LIN price at the close of October 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.