Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.85% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $329.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.06 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.62% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.1505
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0122
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -69.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0122) – 1
= 4.98%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1505 + -0.0033 × 378 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.9330)
= $377.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y260)
= Exp(a + b × X260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 378 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1505 + -0.0033 × 378 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.8844)
= $359.38
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1505 + -0.0033 × 423 + 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.7852)
= $325.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1505 + -0.0033 × 423 – 2 × 0.0122)
= Exp(5.7366)
= $310.00
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.85% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $329.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $11.06 (3.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 9, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 5.3267
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0091
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0091) – 1
= 3.72%
September 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3267 + 0.0011 × 414 + 2 × 0.0091)
= Exp(5.7867)
= $325.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3267 + 0.0011 × 414 – 2 × 0.0091)
= Exp(5.7502)
= $314.26
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3267 + 0.0011 × 430 + 2 × 0.0091)
= Exp(5.8038)
= $331.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3267 + 0.0011 × 430 – 2 × 0.0091)
= Exp(5.7673)
= $319.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.62% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.