Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.42% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $324.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.23 (6.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of October 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 7.0646
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0142
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0142) – 1
= 5.84%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0646 + -0.0031 × 377 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(5.9347)
= $377.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0646 + -0.0031 × 377 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(5.8779)
= $357.07
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0646 + -0.0031 × 426 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(5.7842)
= $325.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0646 + -0.0031 × 426 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(5.7274)
= $307.17
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.42% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $324.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $20.23 (6.66%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: October 13, 2026
a = 6.0256
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0138
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0138) – 1
= 5.66%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0256 + -0.0006 × 406 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.8200)
= $336.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y280)
= Exp(a + b × X280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0256 + -0.0006 × 406 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.7650)
= $318.92
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0256 + -0.0006 × 448 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.7959)
= $328.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0256 + -0.0006 × 448 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.7408)
= $311.33
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.91% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of October 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.