Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 161.91% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $355.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,052.82% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 4.6071
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 161.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.39%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6071 + 0.0026 × 435 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.7995)
= $330.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6071 + 0.0026 × 435 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.7098)
= $301.80
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6071 + 0.0026 × 477 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.9103)
= $368.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6071 + 0.0026 × 477 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.8205)
= $337.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 161.91% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $355.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 27, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 2.6964
b = 0.0067
s = 0.0230
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,052.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0230) – 1
= 9.65%
October 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6964 + 0.0067 × 462 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.8369)
= $342.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6964 + 0.0067 × 462 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.7448)
= $312.56
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6964 + 0.0067 × 477 + 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.9374)
= $378.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6964 + 0.0067 × 477 – 2 × 0.0230)
= Exp(5.8453)
= $345.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,052.82% per annum.
- SHW price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.