Stock Analysis on Net

Sherwin-Williams Co. (NYSE:SHW)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Sherwin-Williams Co., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in thousands, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 18.36%
01 FCFF0 3,037,808
1 FCFF1 3,395,675 = 3,037,808 × (1 + 11.78%) 2,868,907
2 FCFF2 3,818,521 = 3,395,675 × (1 + 12.45%) 2,725,686
3 FCFF3 4,319,682 = 3,818,521 × (1 + 13.12%) 2,605,090
4 FCFF4 4,915,647 = 4,319,682 × (1 + 13.80%) 2,504,620
5 FCFF5 5,626,869 = 4,915,647 × (1 + 14.47%) 2,422,246
5 Terminal value (TV5) 165,460,295 = 5,626,869 × (1 + 14.47%) ÷ (18.36%14.47%) 71,227,103
Intrinsic value of Sherwin-Williams Co. capital 84,353,652
Less: Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value) 10,209,700
Intrinsic value of Sherwin-Williams Co. common stock 74,143,952
 
Intrinsic value of Sherwin-Williams Co. common stock (per share) $300.62
Current share price $320.79

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.



Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Sherwin-Williams Co., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 79,118,241 0.89 20.34%
Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value) 10,209,700 0.11 3.03% = 3.86% × (1 – 21.44%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31).

1 US$ in thousands

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 246,635,621 × $320.79
= $79,118,240,860.59

   Debt and finance lease liabilities (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (23.10% + 22.30% + 23.20% + 21.50% + 17.10%) ÷ 5
= 21.44%

WACC = 18.36%



FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Sherwin-Williams Co., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Dec 31, 2025 Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021
Selected Financial Data (US$ in thousands)
Interest expense 465,000 415,700 417,500 390,800 334,700
Net income 2,568,500 2,681,400 2,388,800 2,020,100 1,864,400
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 23.10% 22.30% 23.20% 21.50% 17.10%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 357,585 322,999 320,640 306,778 277,466
Add: Cash dividends 789,800 723,400 623,700 618,500 587,100
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 1,147,385 1,046,399 944,340 925,278 864,566
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 2,926,085 3,004,399 2,709,440 2,326,878 2,141,866
 
Short-term borrowings 1,200,500 662,400 374,200 978,100 763,500
Current portion of long-term debt 350,100 1,049,200 1,098,800 600 260,600
Current portion of finance lease liabilities 700 3,700
Long-term debt, excluding current portion 9,320,700 8,176,800 8,377,900 9,591,000 8,590,900
Long-term finance lease liabilities, excluding current portion 194,700 185,600
Shareholders’ equity 4,598,300 4,051,200 3,715,800 3,102,100 2,437,200
Total capital 15,665,000 14,128,900 13,566,700 13,671,800 12,052,200
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 0.61 0.65 0.65 0.60 0.60
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 18.68% 21.26% 19.97% 17.02% 17.77%
Averages
RR 0.62
ROIC 18.94%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 11.78%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 See details »

2025 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 465,000 × (1 – 23.10%)
= 357,585

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income + Interest expense, after tax
= 2,568,500 + 357,585
= 2,926,085

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [2,926,0851,147,385] ÷ 2,926,085
= 0.61

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 2,926,085 ÷ 15,665,000
= 18.68%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.62 × 18.94%
= 11.78%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (89,327,941 × 18.36%3,037,808) ÷ (89,327,941 + 3,037,808)
= 14.47%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Sherwin-Williams Co. debt and equity (US$ in thousands)
FCFF0 = the last year Sherwin-Williams Co. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in thousands)
WACC = weighted average cost of Sherwin-Williams Co. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Sherwin-Williams Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 11.78%
2 g2 12.45%
3 g3 13.12%
4 g4 13.80%
5 and thereafter g5 14.47%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 11.78% + (14.47%11.78%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 12.45%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 11.78% + (14.47%11.78%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 13.12%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 11.78% + (14.47%11.78%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 13.80%