Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Fiserv Inc. (NASDAQ:FISV)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Fiserv Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

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Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 10.40%
01 FCFE0 1,204
1 FCFE1 1,446 = 1,204 × (1 + 20.09%) 1,310
2 FCFE2 1,694 = 1,446 × (1 + 17.16%) 1,390
3 FCFE3 1,935 = 1,694 × (1 + 14.23%) 1,438
4 FCFE4 2,154 = 1,935 × (1 + 11.30%) 1,450
5 FCFE5 2,334 = 2,154 × (1 + 8.37%) 1,423
5 Terminal value (TV5) 124,748 = 2,334 × (1 + 8.37%) ÷ (10.40%8.37%) 76,067
Intrinsic value of Fiserv Inc.’s common stock 83,078
 
Intrinsic value of Fiserv Inc.’s common stock (per share) $125.83
Current share price $97.47

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2021-02-26).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Required Rate of Return (r)

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Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 1.87%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.51%
Systematic risk of Fiserv Inc.’s common stock βFISV 0.88
 
Required rate of return on Fiserv Inc.’s common stock3 rFISV 10.40%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rFISV = RF + βFISV [E(RM) – RF]
= 1.87% + 0.88 [11.51%1.87%]
= 10.40%


FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Fiserv Inc., PRAT model

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Average Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Net income attributable to Fiserv, Inc. 958  893  1,187  1,246  930 
Revenue 14,852  10,187  5,823  5,696  5,505 
Total assets 74,619  77,539  11,262  10,289  9,743 
Total Fiserv, Inc. shareholders’ equity 32,330  32,979  2,293  2,731  2,541 
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Profit margin2 6.45% 8.77% 20.38% 21.88% 16.89%
Asset turnover3 0.20 0.13 0.52 0.55 0.57
Financial leverage4 2.31 2.35 4.91 3.77 3.83
Averages
Retention rate 1.00
Profit margin 14.87%
Asset turnover 0.39
Financial leverage 3.43
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5 20.09%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2021-02-26), 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-27), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-21), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-22), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-23).

2020 Calculations

1 Company does not pay dividends

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net income attributable to Fiserv, Inc. ÷ Revenue
= 100 × 958 ÷ 14,852
= 6.45%

3 Asset turnover = Revenue ÷ Total assets
= 14,852 ÷ 74,619
= 0.20

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Fiserv, Inc. shareholders’ equity
= 74,619 ÷ 32,330
= 2.31

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 1.00 × 14.87% × 0.39 × 3.43
= 20.09%


FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (64,353 × 10.40%1,204) ÷ (64,353 + 1,204)
= 8.37%

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Fiserv Inc.’s common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Fiserv Inc.’s free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Fiserv Inc.’s common stock


FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Fiserv Inc., H-model

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Year Value gt
1 g1 20.09%
2 g2 17.16%
3 g3 14.23%
4 g4 11.30%
5 and thereafter g5 8.37%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.09% + (8.37%20.09%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 17.16%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.09% + (8.37%20.09%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 14.23%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 20.09% + (8.37%20.09%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 11.30%