Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.51% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $106.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.35 (15.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.03% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.51 (8.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 21, 2022
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 4.3906
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0795
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0795) – 1
= 37.45%
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3906 + 0.0000 × 404 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.5440)
= $94.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3906 + 0.0000 × 404 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.2259)
= $68.44
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3906 + 0.0000 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.5305)
= $92.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3906 + 0.0000 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0795)
= Exp(4.2124)
= $67.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.51% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $106.93 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.35 (15.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2024
End date: February 21, 2025
a = 1.4851
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0455
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0455) – 1
= 19.95%
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4851 + 0.0022 × 1,259 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.3274)
= $75.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y866)
= Exp(a + b × X866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4851 + 0.0022 × 1,259 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.1455)
= $63.15
February 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4851 + 0.0022 × 1,472 + 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.7928)
= $120.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4851 + 0.0022 × 1,472 – 2 × 0.0455)
= Exp(4.6109)
= $100.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.03% per annum.
- EXE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.51 (8.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.