Linde plc (NASDAQ:LIN)

The financial performance, as measured by economic profit, indicates a consistent shortfall between returns generated and the cost of capital over the five-year period. While net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) demonstrates an increasing trend, it has not been sufficient to overcome the cost of capital applied to the growing invested capital base.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

NOPAT exhibits a clear upward trajectory, increasing from US$3,800 million in 2021 to US$7,182 million in 2025. The most significant increase occurred between 2022 and 2023, with a rise of approximately 66.7%. Growth moderated in subsequent years, but remained positive.

Cost of Capital

The cost of capital remained relatively stable throughout the period, fluctuating between 13.88% and 14.18%. A slight decrease is observed in 2025, falling to 13.88% from 14.05% in 2024. This decrease, however, did not materially impact economic profit.

Invested Capital

Invested capital consistently increased over the five years, rising from US$72,560 million in 2021 to US$80,195 million in 2025. This growth in capital employed contributes to the continued negative economic profit, as a larger capital base requires a greater return to cover the cost of capital.

Economic Profit

Economic profit remained negative throughout the analyzed period, ranging from -US$6,297 million to -US$3,710 million. While the magnitude of the loss decreased from 2021 to 2023, it stabilized and slightly increased in 2025. The reduction in the economic loss between 2021 and 2023 is attributable to the substantial growth in NOPAT, but the increasing invested capital and relatively stable cost of capital prevented a move into positive economic profit territory.

In summary, the organization experienced growth in operational profitability and required investment. However, the returns generated from these investments have consistently fallen short of the cost of funding them, resulting in a persistent economic loss. Further analysis would be required to determine the sustainability of the NOPAT growth and the efficiency of capital allocation.

Net income and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) exhibited positive trends over the five-year period. Both metrics demonstrate consistent growth, with a notable acceleration in later years. The difference between net income and NOPAT remains relatively small throughout the period, suggesting limited impact from financing or non-operating activities.

NOPAT Trend

NOPAT increased from US$3,800 million in 2021 to US$7,182 million in 2025. The growth was moderate between 2021 and 2022, with an increase of approximately 0.87%. A significant jump occurred between 2022 and 2023, with NOPAT rising to US$6,386 million, representing a growth of approximately 66.7%. This upward trajectory continued from 2023 to 2025, with increases of approximately 6.8% and 12.5% respectively.

Relationship between Net Income and NOPAT

The values for net income and NOPAT are closely aligned across all reported years. In 2021, NOPAT was US$3,800 million, compared to net income of US$3,826 million. This difference of US$26 million remained relatively consistent in 2022 (US$3,833 million NOPAT vs. US$4,147 million net income, a difference of US$314 million). The gap widened slightly in 2023 (US$6,386 million NOPAT vs. US$6,199 million net income) and continued to widen in 2024 (US$6,814 million NOPAT vs. US$6,565 million net income) and 2025 (US$7,182 million NOPAT vs. US$6,898 million net income). These differences suggest increasing non-operating items or financing costs as a percentage of overall profitability.

The consistent growth in NOPAT indicates improving core operational profitability. The increasing divergence between NOPAT and net income warrants further investigation to understand the drivers of these differences, potentially related to interest expense, taxes, or other non-operating items. Overall, the trend in NOPAT is positive and suggests strong underlying business performance.

The provision for income taxes and cash operating taxes both demonstrate an increasing trend over the five-year period. However, the magnitude of increase differs between the two items, and both exhibit some fluctuation in growth rate.

Provision for Income Taxes

The provision for income taxes increased from US$1,262 million in 2021 to US$1,814 million in 2023, representing a substantial rise. Growth slowed in 2024 to US$2,002 million, and then decreased slightly to US$1,989 million in 2025. This suggests a potential stabilization or minor reduction in tax obligations after a period of significant growth.

Cash Operating Taxes

Cash operating taxes exhibited a consistent increase throughout the period, rising from US$1,537 million in 2021 to US$2,516 million in 2025. The increase from 2021 to 2022 was US$298 million, while the increase from 2024 to 2025 was US$311 million, indicating a relatively consistent absolute increase in cash tax payments. The growth rate, however, decelerated slightly over time.

Relationship between Provision and Cash Taxes

Cash operating taxes consistently exceeded the provision for income taxes in each year. The difference between the two items varied between approximately US$275 million and US$527 million. This difference suggests the presence of timing differences between accounting income and taxable income, or potentially deferred tax assets/liabilities. The gap narrowed slightly between 2021 and 2023, then widened again in 2024 and 2025, indicating a changing dynamic in these timing differences.

Overall, the company experienced increasing tax obligations, both from an accounting perspective (provision for income taxes) and a cash flow perspective (cash operating taxes). The consistent difference between the two items warrants further investigation to understand the underlying causes and potential implications for future cash flows and financial reporting.

Analysis of the presented financial information reveals trends in the company’s capital structure and invested capital over a five-year period. Total reported debt and leases demonstrate a consistent upward trajectory, while total shareholders’ equity exhibits more fluctuation. Invested capital generally increases throughout the period, though its growth appears to be influenced by both debt and equity movements.

Debt & Leases

Total reported debt and leases increased steadily from US$15,216 million in 2021 to US$28,069 million in 2025. The rate of increase accelerated in later years, with a substantial rise between 2024 and 2025. This suggests an increasing reliance on debt financing.

Shareholders’ Equity

Total Linde plc shareholders’ equity decreased from US$44,035 million in 2021 to US$38,092 million in 2024, before experiencing a slight increase to US$38,245 million in 2025. This initial decline could be attributed to share repurchases, dividend payments, or unrealized losses. The stabilization in 2025 suggests a potential bottoming out of equity reduction.

Invested Capital

Invested capital remained relatively stable between 2021 and 2023, fluctuating around US$72-73 billion. A noticeable increase occurred in 2024, reaching US$74,884 million, and continued into 2025, reaching US$80,195 million. This growth in invested capital correlates with the increasing debt levels, indicating that debt financing is contributing to capital expansion. The slight dip in invested capital between 2021 and 2022 is likely due to the decrease in shareholders’ equity offsetting the increase in debt.

The combined effect of rising debt and fluctuating equity results in a generally increasing trend in invested capital. The company appears to be actively employing debt to fund its operations and growth initiatives, particularly in the later years of the observed period. Further investigation into the specific uses of the increased debt would be beneficial to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of these capital allocation decisions.

The economic spread ratio exhibited a consistent, though moderating, improvement over the five-year period. While economic profit remained negative throughout, the magnitude of the loss decreased, contributing to the observed trend in the economic spread ratio.

Economic Spread Ratio

The economic spread ratio began at -8.68% in 2021 and slightly decreased to -8.71% in 2022. A notable shift occurred in 2023, with the ratio improving to -5.48%. This improvement continued into 2024, reaching -4.95%, and stabilized at -4.92% in 2025. The consistent negative values indicate that the company’s return on invested capital is less than its cost of capital, resulting in value destruction. However, the trend suggests a diminishing rate of value destruction.

Invested capital generally increased over the period. From 2021 to 2023, it experienced a slight decrease, followed by increases in 2024 and 2025, reaching US$80,195 million. This growth in invested capital occurred alongside the improvement in the economic spread ratio, suggesting that while the company is investing more, it is doing so more efficiently in terms of generating returns relative to its cost of capital.

Economic Profit

Economic profit remained negative throughout the analyzed timeframe, ranging from -6,297 million to -3,710 million. The most substantial reduction in the loss occurred between 2021 and 2023, decreasing from -6,297 million to -4,021 million. The decline in the magnitude of the loss slowed in subsequent years, with a smaller decrease from -4,021 million to -3,710 million between 2023 and 2024, and a slight increase to -3,948 million in 2025.

The convergence of these trends – increasing invested capital and a progressively less negative economic spread ratio – suggests the company is making operational improvements or strategic adjustments that are enhancing its capital efficiency, despite continuing to operate at a loss when considering the cost of capital.

The financial performance, as indicated by economic profit and its margin, demonstrates a consistent pattern of negative economic profit over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025. However, the magnitude of the economic loss appears to be decreasing over time, alongside an improving economic profit margin.

Economic Profit

Economic profit exhibits a negative value each year. The largest economic loss occurred in 2021 and 2022, at approximately US$6.3 billion. A reduction in the absolute value of the loss is observed in subsequent years, reaching US$3.71 billion in 2024 before slightly increasing to US$3.948 billion in 2025. This suggests a gradual improvement in the company’s ability to generate returns exceeding its cost of capital, although it remains unprofitable from an economic perspective.

Sales

Sales revenue shows an overall increasing trend. From US$30.793 billion in 2021, sales grew to US$33.364 billion in 2022. A slight decrease to US$32.854 billion occurred in 2023, followed by a modest increase to US$33.005 billion in 2024, and further growth to US$33.986 billion in 2025. The growth in sales does not appear to be directly translating into positive economic profit, indicating potential issues with cost management or capital efficiency.

Economic Profit Margin

The economic profit margin consistently registers as a negative percentage, reflecting the ongoing economic losses. The margin improved from -20.45% in 2021 to -18.89% in 2022. This improvement continued through 2023 and 2024, reaching -12.24% and -11.24% respectively. The margin experienced a slight deterioration in 2025, settling at -11.62%. This indicates that while the company is still experiencing economic losses, the proportion of loss relative to sales is decreasing, suggesting improved operational efficiency or a more favorable capital structure.

In summary, the company consistently generates negative economic profit, but the trend suggests a gradual improvement in economic profitability as evidenced by the increasing economic profit margin. The growth in sales revenue is not sufficient to offset the cost of capital and generate positive economic profit, but the relationship between sales and economic loss is becoming more favorable.